I bought some NEM August calls.  I have the 40's.  I placed a couple orders overnight for August and September NEM calls.  When I got up this morning they weren't filled.  The August ones got close but I had put in orders that I didn't think would get filled unless there was a perfect storm.  Gold was down a few dollars.  The US dollar was stronger.  I watched and waited.  Halfway through the session the XAU and NEM started to rise.  I figured with the earnings coming out on NEM tomorrow maybe I should pick some up.  I waited for a pullback.  It never came.  Others must be thinking what I'm thinking.  I decided to just buy some calls.  Somewhat chasing the move, however this move might just be getting started.  Had I been quicker to realize what was happening, I could have saved a few bucks.  Both the XAU and NEM had a one day reversal.  We will see if it's for real.  Looks like it could be a bottom on the daily charts.  I will say the fact that the earnings for NEM come out tomorrow influenced my decision.  That and the market action today and the technical oversold levels of the XAU and NEM.  We'll see what happens.  The overall market has rallied today with the Dow up about 135 points right now.  Advance/declines are positive but not extreme.  Volume is pretty good.  Is this an oversold bounce or the start of something real?  I'm thinking oversold bounce.  Fridays GDP is key I believe, for this gold trade and the markets.   End of the month too.  XAU still rallying here and is up a full point.  10 minutes to go.  We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow closed basically unchanged today.  It was up early, sold off and then came back.  Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was pretty good for a monday.  I'm thinking that it has got to get going on the upside sometime this week.  Not necessarily stay there but at least have some positive action pricewise.  But I don't really know.  You never do.  Gold was also unchanged on the day even though the dollar was weaker.  The XAU was down a point and a half.  NEM off about 75 cents.  Crosscurrents.  I'm thinking of putting in a couple of overnight orders for NEM.  I will price them for perfection, meaning only a best case scenario will trigger them.  NEM earnings on wednesday.  It's oversold as is the XAU.  I do want some type of position before fridays GDP.  XAU 2 1/2 points away from the multi-year weekly uptrend line.  It's just about gametime.  Timing on all trades is the most critical component for success.  Yes, you have to get the direction right.  Yes, you have to pick the proper instrument.  Yes, you must define the risk parameters.  But if you don't time it right it will cost you more than any of those things.  A trade will be entered at some time this week.  And when it is entered and at what price are very serious issues that have to be dealt with.  It's not an easy task.  However if done correctly, the action will be well rewarded... 

Sunday night with the S&P futures up a little and so is gold.  No trades in the OEX for now.  I will be buying some gold calls this week if the market cooperates.  As I mentioned before the dollar is on the cusp of breaking a multi-year downtrend line along with the XAU just about to break its weekly uptrend line.  I will be trading as if those lines will continue to hold.  I believe they will.  If they don't then I will simply get out of any trades taken.  I think the GDP report on friday will be weaker then expected and the dollar will head lower.  NEM has earnings out on wednesday.  I will try to let that pass before taking a position.  The options still have 4 weeks left for August.  Who knows, I might even be patient and let a base develop but I doubt it.  I think any rally in the stock market will be short-lived or sold into at this point.  Puts will be the play there as conditions warrant.  It is a most difficult game to play.  Volatility has picked up.  Am I up for the challenge?

More downside today.  Dow off 88 points.  Advance/declines negative.  Summation index still pointing down.  Looks like trouble.  Should see some relief rallies along the way but the path of least resistance is down.  Looks like the market thinks Kerry will be the victor in November.  I think that that's part of it.  Also my theory that the economy is heading down could be correct.  Certainly seasonality is a factor.  Gold was off a few bucks today.  The XAU and NEM got down to their short-term trendlines.  I did not buy calls.  They then proceeded to go below the trendlines and close on their lows.  XAU down around 2 1/2 and NEM off 1 1/2.  The longer term weekly uptrendline for the XAU is at 80.  If and when we get there, I'm buying calls.  NEM has its earnings report on wednesday.  I will try to not let that influence me.  I would like to be long before next fridays GDP report if conditions allow.  I believe that report will be weaker than expected and the dollar should fall.  The dollar was stronger today and is approaching a weekly downtrend line at 90.  If it breaks to the upside, all gold calls should not be bought.  Same if the XAU breaks 80.  So we are at a critical juncture or just about there.  More this weekend...

Volatility has returned.  We ended up down over 100 points yesterday.  The Dow was up 4 points today but was down around 60 at one point and up over 20 at another.  Advance/declines were negative.  The volume has picked up in the last couple of days.  The summation index has rolled over and is heading down.  Usually this means lower prices.  But it was going up through most of the recent decline.  Gotta believe that the market will trend lower though.  Gold was down a couple bucks today.  NEM and the XAU were marginally higher though.  We are practically at the short term uptrend line.  A decision must be made as to the purchase of calls.  Some of the technical indicators are oversold here.  This has been the area to get long in recent months for profits.  How long can it go on?  I don't know.  I suppose I'm willing to try it again.  Today might have been the day.  Still over 4 weeks left on this option cycle.  Would like to see a few days of sideways activity in the gold stocks to form a better base.  But you can't have everything I guess.  Will try to wait until the beginning of next week. 

A quick note with 2 hours to go in the day.  Haven't left for the track yet.  The market rallied early on the Microsoft news of a special dividend.  However the day has turned around and we are now negative.  Advance/declines are solidly negative.  It remains to be seen how we will close today but I think this thing is in trouble.  Can't rally on good news, never a positive sign.  Gold is down $5, the XAU and NEM are weak but not terribly so.  Approaching the uptrendline for NEM soon.  Dollar strong but that's because of Greenspan.  The data coming in is still weak.  Dow flat at the moment.  We'll see how it closes.  Back again tomorrow...

Finally some upside.  Dow was up 55 points, advance/declines were decent and so was the volume.  Big Al Greenspan was talking up the economy before some government panel.  Will it last?  Who knows?  It's still oversold but not as much.  Call buying has increased and if that keeps up I don't think the rally will last long.  Gold was off around 3 and a half bucks.  Nice heads up from yesterdays XAU action.  Both the XAU and  NEM were off fractionally.  Still trying to be patient when it comes to purchasing those NEM calls.  Gotta wait until it gets to the uptrend line, if possible.  It seems like buying comes in whenever this thing sells off though.  And the earnings are in a week.  Dollar was stronger today.  Lots of crosscurrents.  There's no rush but I don't want to miss the boat either.  Toughest game in the world, this trading is.  Internal battles with oneself are ongoing too.  It's possible that no blog posting will appear tomorrow.  I'll be taking one of the rare semi-days off here and heading to opening day at Del Mar.  Will be leaving about 2 hours before the close.  Might get back to post later that evening but I doubt it.  It's summertime...

The Dow was down 45 points today.  Most of that can be attributed to 3M which sold off big after its earnings announcement.  Volume was a little better than usual but nothing spectacular.  Whenever a market goes up or down due to one stock, sometimes it will go in the opposite direction following this action.  We sure need some type of upmove.  Advance declines were slightly positive.  The OEX was actually up a little.  On the sidelines for now.  Gold did not move much, however the XAU was down around a point and a half and NEM was off about 80 cents.  Does that mean gold will be down tomorrow?  Would like to see NEM get to around $40, it's at 41 and change now.  The earnings are due out in a week.  Now do I get long ahead of that or not?  I f it goes down then I probably will.  But if it rises into the earnings announcement I'll lay off.  What more good news could come after that?  So I guess I'll have to be patient and let the stock price dictate the trading outcome.  We all know how hard it is to remain patient.  Let's hope I can sit it out for a while here, meaning until the uptrendline it touched or the beginning of next week.  Wish it was easy but it never is.

Sunday afternoon and hot.  S&P futures up a tad and gold is unchanged.  I'm looking for a rally in the OEX here.  Can't stay oversold forever now, can it?  Don't know how much the rally will be or if it will even happen.  But the odds favor one at this point.  I'm hoping for a pullback in gold and NEM in order to get long again.  Hard to say what will happen there.  Will have to listen to the market.  The racetrack opens for the summer this week, a nice diversion.  With the summer doldrums firmly in place, something is needed to liven things up.  Not a lot of economic reports this week although Greenspan will be giving a couple of speeches.  Looking back on the last trade, the exit could have been done better.  The entry on the July calls was excellent.  The timing could not have been better.  The August calls were chased on the entry.  I would still be holding them if a better entry had been done.  The exits, done at the same time, should have happened when resistance was hit.  It cost me some money waiting around for a breakthrough that never happened.  As always, timing is the key to profits.  I don't anticipate buying anything this week since the premiums will be higher than usual due to the extra time for the August options.  But ya never know...

The market just can't get any traction.  Dow down again, around 25 points.  Advance/declines about even.  Like I said previously, when the breadth starts to deteriorate, I think we will be in major trouble.  But right now we're oversold and I would expect some type of bounce or rally.  It's really a dull, no interest market.  The worst summer doldrums I've seen in a while.  Gold was up a couple bucks today and the dollar hit a 4 month low.  That didn't get the XAU moving, in fact it was down a little.  NEM continues to show good relative strength and was up another 40 cents.  Volume was light again though.  I'd like to see a pullback in NEM here to get long again.  But who knows?  I am concerned about the overall market though.  We really need some buying in here soon.  We now roll to the August options, which have 5 weeks on them.  Premiums will be higher.  Now comes the hard part which is patience.  I'll do my best.  But if a good signal appears, I'll have to act on it.  Might be back this weekend but it is the summer...

About 20 minutes to go and the Dow is down around 20 points. Not a lot of movement considering all the data that came out today. Well the data was mixed and so is the market. Advance/declines are solidly positive here though. I would love to have the guts to buy some OEX calls now. Even though they only have one day left on them. We are medium-term oversold. And the transports are up big today, over 45 points. They sometimes lead the Dow and that may well be the case right now. But the risk is insane. Gold was down around a buck today. The XAU is off fractionally and NEM is right about even. NEM is holding up pretty good here today but the volume is pitiful. The dollar was stronger against the major currencies today and the inflation data was benign. I'll buy some more calls on NEM on a pullback, if that occurs. Results for the previous calls: a 40% gain on the August calls sold yesterday and a little under a 400% gain on the July calls. That's not a typo. And the July calls should have been sold when NEM hit resistance last friday for an even bigger gain. But what can ya do? Option expiration tomorrow, 10 minutes to go here and I'll fight myself not to buy some OEX calls at the close...

Finally got some volatility in the market today. The Dow was down around 35 points. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume picked up. Were up around 30 at one point and down around 70 at another. Lots of economic data out tomorrow, including inflation news. Gold was up around 3 dollars and change. The XAU didn't move up that much and NEM gained about 50 cents. I sold my July and August NEM calls near the close. With only 2 days left on the July options I had to bail out. They had a good profit, I'll give the details tomorrow. I figure I can purchase the August calls cheaper within the next 2 weeks. Made a little bit there also. I would have liked to have had the guts to hold on another day because if the resistance is taken out, NEM will go to $44-$45 pretty quickly. But something made me just get out. We'll see what happens tomorrow and I hope I'm not kicking myself in the ass. I don't have any OEX trades in the works but I think the market wants to go higher. However the August options have 5 weeks on them, which means there will be no hurry to do anything. Unless...

Another summer afternoon day in the market. Going nowhere, light volume, no volatility session. Dow up 9 points. Advance/declines slightly positive. It's the doldrums. No interest one way or the other. That might change tomorrow. Intel announced its results after the close and it is down almost a buck in after hours trading. We'll see. Gold got pummeled after the balance of trade number came out a little better then expected. It was down over 6 bucks and the dollar rallied also. Interesting how the gold stocks were down yesterday on no news. Stocks lead the bullion. Even with the sell-off in gold, the XAU was only down around a point and NEM was off around 20 cents. Could the gold stocks be heading higher from here? Of course that would help me out. The volume on the sell-off was light. My thinking is that we've taken a rest from the run-up of last week and now we are ready to go higher once again. That's the feel I get. But there are only 3 days left on the NEM July calls. Resistance is still at $42.5 for NEM. If we get there, I should sell and look for the next opportunity. And it may not even get there. Need to sell out soon here though. Maybe tomorrow. As for the OEX, there is no clear signal so I must stay on the sidelines for now.

Never made it back here over the weekend. Summertime. The Dow was up 25 points today on again light volume. Advance/declines were modestly positive. I wanted to get some calls but am not convinced this slight bounce is for real yet. The volume just isn't there. There are also only 4 days left until expiration so the timing must be exact really. Not that it can't be done but the risk is very high. Gold did not move today, however the XAU was down a point and NEM lost 75 cents. Does that preclude a decline in gold tomorrow? We'll see. I am now in the position of NEM having moved to the point of resistance and stalling. Will it be turned back here for a while? Or will it break through, as I am hoping? I have profits in both the July and August positions at the moment. Not as much as friday though. And there are only 4 days left on the July position. I would like to wait for the retail sales report on wednesday. Probably will. It's expected that NEM would need a rest after last week, just not a permanent sleep. The trade report tomorrow should impact the dollar, which way I don't know. And so it goes. It's certainly not the game for most, as I well know at this point. You are pretty much on your own here. It's not that it gets lonely or anything. But there isn't much input from friends or family. They're generally not traders. They might repeat something about the markets that they heard on the evening news. There won't be any insight, any help or anything worthwhile towards your goal of being a successful trader. You can't discuss things with them because they haven't the faintest idea what you're talking about. You can try but they just don't get it. You're not bubbleboy but you do travel mentally in a different orbit. It's frustrating at times, believe me. But not everyone has the drive and determination to see it through. Not everyone has the guts to buck the crowd and go their own way. I mean who in their right mind would think they could get started out of their living room trading against the best minds and the biggest bank accounts on the planet? But what can I say? I'm on a mission. I know it can be done and equally as important, I know that I can do it. It won't happen overnight and it hasn't. But with patience and discipline, there's a lot of money out there to be had. And if nobody else can understand that, well I knew I was going to have to do it on my own anyway. So yeah, maybe it is kinda solitary at times. I suppose I chose the road less traveled...

Market up today. The Dow gained 40 points. Advance/declines were good but the volume was light. I would like to buy some OEX calls but just can't bring myself to do it. I have even got an intermediate term buy signal on one of my indicators. But it just doesn't seem like the market really wants to go up here. However there is also a chance that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing on the OEX. I'm on the sidelines for now. Gold did not move today. However the XAU and NEM sold off early, only to rally back late in the day and both ended positive for the day. They are overbought for sure here. And NEM is just about at resistance at $42.5. If it somehow breaks through that barrier maybe $45 is in the cards. Wishful thinking. It is interesting though, especially when you own the calls. Lots of data coming out next week and earnings too. Plus option expiration. Should be a busy week. And I should be taking some profits. NEM is moving pretty strong. The ideal scenario is to sell the positions sometime next week and then re-buy them back cheaper in a couple weeks. Ahh, if only the markets worked that way. I think by now we know they don't. More this weekend...

Market down again today, Dow off around 70 points. Getting to be like a broken record. I didn't buy any calls but I sure wanted to. Advance/declines were negative and the volume picked up a tad. The McClellan Oscillator hasn't even gone negative in this whole decline. Don't know what that means but when it does go negative, watch out! We are oversold. Usually the market doesn't stay that way. At around 540 on the OEX. Possibly will buy calls in the 535 area. Must have the guts. A week left on the options after today. We'll see. Gold continued higher, up $5. The XAU was only up a point and change though. NEM was strong and up around 90 cents to about $42. Almost to the target of $42.5. Now do I get out at 42.5 or do I push it for more? Really should just get out. I can't expect gold to just continue to go straight up as it has the last couple of days. I expect some kind of pause tomorrow. The volume on NEM has picked up a lot, so I think this move is for real. Hopefully to last for more then a few weeks. I'll wait for $42.5 and take it from there. Resistance comes in soon on the XAU also. A good spot to take a rest for a couple weeks. Hard to say, the market will go where it wants, when it wants. NEM looking good for now though. My thoughts on that one are proving correct so far. As for the OEX? It's a much tougher game to play...

The Dow managed to go up 20 points today. Was up around 45 points and then pulled back. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were solidly positive. I'd like to get some calls here and almost bought some today. If we're down tomorrow I just might. Gold rallied strongly, up almost 10 bucks. I guess the lack of sell-off in the gold stocks yesterday was for real. The XAU was up 3 1/2 points and NEM was up 1 3/4. Both my positions are now in the black. Even the poor timing, chased move NEM August calls are now making money. Volume was heavy. We have broken out above $40 on NEM. The next stop is $42.5, where if I have any brain in my head, that will be the target to get out of these trades. That is the idea at this point. We should see resistance there and then I will buy back the August NEM calls at a better price. Sounds good in theory anyway. A couple of earnings announcement tonight but otherwise not much news coming out. I'll look to get some OEX calls tomorrow on weakness. However this is a confusing market that is not rallying even with the good internals. As I said before if the internals start to go negative we could be in for real trouble on the downside. Don't know, just guessing as usual...

Market again weak today with the Dow off 63 points. The advance/declines were moderately weaker and the volume was light. We were down over 80 points during the session. I'd love to take a stab at getting some calls here. Definitely oversold here on a short-term basis and even getting there on a longer-term basis. Might only be a bounce but we are due. Perhaps tomorrow I'll put in an order. Gold had an interesting day. It was off over $5. However the XAU was only down half a point and NEM was actually up a little on heavy volume. Normally I would consider the action to be pretty bullish. But I checked the headlines and it seems over the weekend in Barrons, the CEO of NEM said gold is in a paradigm shift with relation to the US dollar. He sees nothing but good things for NEM and the gold market because of this. Whenever they start mentioning something like this in a major publication, it's usually the kiss of death. New paradigm? Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right at the top of the tech boom. Would not be surprised to see NEM trade sideways now, which would kill my options. I need a break through resistance at $40 to see these positions work. Next resistance, which I believe is stronger, comes in around $42.5. Will sell out there if it ever happens. OEX calls tomorrow? We'll see...

Holiday monday. The dollar has risen overseas and hence gold is down a little. Need to see gold rally some here to have my open positions profitable. Short week with not a lot of economic news. Tough call. I expect the volume will be slow also. Overall market is due for at least some upside this week, I think. Longer term charts for both the OEX and XAU look positive at this point. Not much else to say today...

My thoughts on the US economy going forward. I really don't think that the economy will be strong. Consumer debt is very high. But you could always say that I suppose. There are no tax rebates coming up. Those checks everybody got the last couple years are no more. Interest rates were and are at historic lows. Everyone who wanted to refinance already has. Whoever could afford to buy a place most likely has by now. The zero interest new car deals are gone. Again if you wanted a new vehicle you have probably already bought it. Witness the recent slump in car sales. Wages are growing at an anemic rate. So there is no extra money being placed in consumers hands that way. With rates this low the economy only grew at around 4% according to the most recent GDP data. It will not be going up from here. Growth will be tepid at best. I think the next boost will be when the troops finally get out of Iraq. But for now, I don't see much. The current administration has thrown everything it could to get the economy going for the upcoming election. In 4 months the election will be over and then what? Rates are starting to rise and even though it's from historically low levels the perception of higher rates is there. Higher gas prices continue to be a drain on spendable dollars. If there is a terrorist attack on our home soil this summer, more contraction will undoubtedly occur. There is the uncertainty of the election outcome. Earlier I didn't think there was any possible way Bush could lose but now I'm not so sure. Businesses will most likely wait to see who wins before committing to new spending in their respective industries. The only plus for purchases this year is a tax law favoring depreciation that expires at the end of this year. I see some inflation for products. But nothing out of control. A little inflation won't hurt the economy going forward. A larger increase most certainly will. So there you have it. An economy that muddles along with its strongest growth in the rearview mirror.

The Dow was down 50 points today. Employment came in less then expected. The volume was weak ahead of the long weekend. The advance/declines were solidly positive. Interesting. I'm thinking of getting some calls next week perhaps. The weekend will give me a chance to check the dailies, weeklies and monthlies. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar was weaker. The XAU was up almost a couple points and NEM was up a point. The options purchased yesterday are showing a small profit and the August calls are starting to come back a bit but are still under water. Timing is everything. That's a lesson that can't be stressed enough. Of course when a trade starts to move your way you start to think that maybe you might know something. Don't be fooled. You don't know anything. The market moves where it does regardless of your trades. The overall market is puzzling right now, with strong internals yet lower prices. Imagine what might be happening if the internals were weak. Mixed signals but I'll check things over the weekend. And give my thought on the economy...

The Dow ended down 100 points. Advance/declines weren't all that bad though. Volume picked up a bit. I've noticed the new lows have dramatically expanded in the last 2 days. No trades here for now but I'm thinking some calls might be in order shortly. Employment data tomorrow and a long weekend to follow. The XAU ended down a point and NEM was off 70 cents. We'll see tomorrow how this trade will play out. Possibly was dumb to pick up some more calls short-term here. The uptrend line must hold or it's a loser. But you gotta take some chances once in a while. And this isn't a huge trade, moneywise. Why would the Dow be so weak here? Do the powers that be know something about tomorrows report? Or could it be something else. I'll give some of my longer term views on the economy over the weekend.

Purchased some July NEM 40 calls a few minutes ago. Not a lot of money in this trade either. We are at the short-term uptrend line and the contract is at its low. Looking for a bounce or if the line doesn't hold, get out. Sounds great in theory doesn't it? Gold was up $3 today and as of now the XAU and NEM are both down a little. Actually NEM is down around 60 cents to the support at $38. This should be a short-term trade with only 2 weeks to go on these things and being a couple bucks out of the money. Perhaps traders will be looking to buy some gold before the long holiday weekend. Or not. I'll return here after the close. Market down triple digits at the moment.

The Fed raised rates a quarter point. Ho-hum. It was widely anticipated. I can't remember when the consensus on such a thing was so universal. The Dow didn't do much, was up 22 points. Gold didn't move much but the XAU was up almost a couple points and NEM gained back what it lost yesterday. My options gained a little. Don't know about this trade. Maybe it will work but I doubt it. I think the OEX has room to move up a little from here but I'm not expecting anything big and I think we will be rangebound for a while. The VIX is very low so I don't see a huge move up at this point. CBOE call/put ratio has been gaining bullishness which isn't a positive. However my own RSI tool shows that we could be getting a little oversold. Mixed bag for sure. The employment report on friday and then everybody out for the long holiday weekend. Summer doldrums? You bet. Not the greatest time to be trying to make money but we shall see. Nobody said it would be easy...

The Dow came back a little today, up 56 points. The volume was average. Advance/declines were about even though. SPX not up as much as the Dow. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Even that may not break us out of this market apathy. We'll see. Gold sold off big today, off $8.50. However the XAU was only down a point and a half. NEM was down around 75 cents. It seems the gold stocks move ahead of the price of gold lately. In a small capitalization market such as this, manipulation would be easier to take place. The options I purchased are almost cut in half. NEM is right on a multiweek uptrend line. Perhaps tomorrow will be the key. But this is almost a certain loser, even with over 7 weeks left. It's too far out of the money at this point. The entry was wrong. I am going to have to cut the loss and move on. For me, as always, easier said than done. So we will see what the Fed has to say and how the various markets react.

Interesting day in the overall market today. The power transfer to Iraq took place this morning in a surprise move. The market rallied in the morning with the Dow up over 80 points. Stayed up most of the day but with a couple hours to go, sold off and ended down 15 points. Not a good sign. The volume picked up some for a monday and there has been more volume lately, up or down. Advance/declines slightly negative. Stochastics have rolled over. Doesn't look good near term. Perhaps we are setting up for a rally into July expiration. It's just a guess. Gold was down a couple bucks on the news. However the XAU and NEM got slammed, down 2 1/2 and a buck respectively. My options have now lost a third of there value and this trade looks like a loser. The daily charts have broken down also. I know I said this would be a longer term trade but it isn't looking like that after today. I chased the move and now will pay for it I suppose. Foolish. I will wait for the Fed announcement on wednesday, for that was really the whole premise of this trade. Perhaps I should listen to myself once in a while when it comes to the duration of option trades. These are short term timing vehicles, not multi-month trade products. I really believe that. Perhaps this trade will work but I'm sincerely doubting that right now. It is probably best to take the loss and move on. Not get stuck watching this thing go nowhere while other opportunities possibly await. The mental anguish may take its toll. But I'll hang around until wednesday and take it from there...

S&P futures are up 3 points and gold is up a dollar this sunday. I think this week will be a sign of where we are going in the near term. Once the Fed announcement is out of the way wednesday, the market will have no more excuses. Now I'm not saying that it couldn't end up being a wishy-washy, trading range summer. That's a possibility. But I think this week will provide some insight and direction for the market. The supposed Iraq power turnover is wednesday also. As long as that doesn't turn into a full scale civil war, it should be a positive. We shall see. The gold trade that I have established is a toss-up. Perhaps I have gone out too far in time. The strike price I chose is right at resistance. However if the multiweek trend I envision does occur, this trade will work. And as always I will have my eye on the OEX for profit possibilities. Summer is just beginning and I will try to trade my best. It will require discipline, as always and some market insight on my part. The latter has been sorely lacking as of late.

OK, I was a little early on my summer rally call. Dow down 71 points today. However there was a rebalancing of some indexes at the close which skewed the results. Advance/declines were positive. The Dow dropped around 40 points in the last minute. This will probably be made up first thing monday morning. The volume picked up a little this week so maybe we are ready to break out of the trading range for real this time. Gold, the XAU and NEM didn't move much today. The options I purchased lost a little premium. More this weekend.

The market was down a bit today. The Dow lost 35 points, however the advance/declines were slightly positive. Volume was light as usual. Waiting for the 30th I suppose. No clear signal although it looks like the market wants to go higher. The XAU and NEM sold off a bit from when I was here earlier. Could be a badly timed trade but it's got a lot of time left so we'll see. The options didn't move, pricewise. And so another trade begins. What are the parameters for this one? I'll give it some time. If it gets cut in half I'll dump it and maybe even before then. If we get to resistance at 42.5, I'll see what the price looks like and the amount of time left and take it from there. This could just be a dumb trade. Or it could be that my thoughts are correct and it will work out. I'd like to see something solid with the OEX to trade but I can't just make it happen. The markets go where they go. See ya tomorrow...

Here early today to announce a trade in gold. Gold moved up $8 today. I hope I'm not chasing the move but I am. However I am believing this is a multiweek upmove. The weekly charts are just getting started to the upside. I did something that I don't usually do and bought some August calls. Normally I think that options are a short term trading tool. I really think that that's what they do best. However this move in gold should last a while as long as the dollar stays weak and the geopolitical landscape remains uncertain. And those trends I expect to continue. I didn't put a lot into this trade, only 5 contracts for the NEM 42.5 August calls. NEM is up a buck right now to 39.90 or so. I'm not sure how this will work out, there is a lot of resistance at 42.5 for NEM. Plus it's out of the money with its price based on time and volatility premium. It could be a bad trade, who knows? The next few weeks will tell. I'll be back around closing time with the daily update.

Doldrums over. Let the summer rally begin. Market rallied in the final hour again today with the Dow up 84 points. Volume was better than usual as was yesterday which I noticed after the close. We have broken out of trading range from the last couple of weeks to the upside. New highs in the offing? Time will tell. Gold didn't move much today and neither did the XAU, which was up a tad. NEM was down a touch. I would still like to put on a long gold trade before the Fed announcement. How to trade the rally? I see that GE has already moved up and is in a solid uptrend. I'll have to check the weeklies there. OEX perhaps? There is resistance on a weekly basis around 10 points from here. That will be the key. If we can somehow break through that, it's up, up and away. The options still have alot of time premium in them since we are in the first week post expiration. Also one less day on them with the July 4th holiday. So decisions must be made. But not today and for me probably not this week.

Half hour to go. Dow is up 20 points. Was down 40 earlier today. Not a lot of volume and the internals are even. Gold up around a buck, with the XAU up around a point and NEM up a little too. Another nothing day in the market, really. Possibly getting to a slight oversold reading but not one with any real conviction. And so we drift around aimlessly, in a sea of uncertainty. Waiting for June 30th with the Fed and the turnover of power in Iraq. Now will these events prove to be market movers? Don't know. Earnings are due to start coming out soon. Perhaps that will propel us one way or another. Maybe today is a reversal, being down over 40 points at one point and now reversing to be up. But my feeling is more sideways action for now. I would like to see gold come back so I may initiate a long position. But that may not happen either. It's tough to sit on the sidelines but patience and discipline are sometimes well rewarded. But at this rate it could be a looooong summer...

Market did nothing all day, then dropped 44 points in the last hour. Volume light, advance/declines slightly negative. Gold was down a little as was the XAU and NEM. Kind of a blah monday. Preview of the summer to come? Who knows? Is it tough to stay on the sidelines and wait for a decent set-up? Yes. I guess we could take a look back at the trading so far this year. It is almost the halfway point. And I don't foresee the closeout of any trades before the end of June. I started the year with the blowout losses in the GE trade. This was the trade where my 50 contract order wasn't getting filled at one brokerage so I put in another 50 contract order in at another account I have and was immediately filled. However I did not cancel the order that wasn't getting filled and when I went back to cancel it a minute later, it too was filled. So I had 100 contracts for a position that expired worthless. Oooh, the pain, the pain, as maybe Tatu would have said on Fantasy Island. Sure, I can joke about it now because time has passed but it was torture when it happened. My own fault for being anxious on the trade and it wasn't that good anyway as it turned out. Made a couple of OEX trades in March that didn't work. Was it the aftermath of the horrendous GE trade or just poor trading, I don't know. Finally got it together in April with a couple winning trades followed by another winner in May. Still in negative territory for the year though, however the loss has been more than cut in half. We'll see what the next six months brings. Hopefully I'll make it back to profitability if I can remain focused and not do the usual stupid mistakes. My discipline has been better but that's what blowout losses can do for you. Don't need that lesson again...

Sunday afternoon, Globex S&P futures are up a couple points. Only plan this week will be to get long gold unless a clear signal appears elsewhere. Not a lot happening this week. Fed meeting next week. Summer arrives today and the doldrums are already here.

Dow up about 40 points. Kind of a listless expiration. Gold was up $6. However the XAU was only up around a point and a half. NEM was up 65 cents. My thinking is to get long NEM on a pullback next week. There is no clear signal for the OEX but if one appears I'll act on it. More this weekend.

Another light volume, no movement affair on Wall Street. Dow off around 5 points with a half hour to go. Inflation data came out stronger than anticipated earlier and we sold off. But now we are basically unchanged and going nowhere. It's very rare for this type of non-activity during options expiration week. I don't know what to say. It's also a June expiration so the quarterly stuff goes off the board too. Gold was up $4 ant the XAU and NEM have moved higher again. The NEM July 37.5s have doubled and I probably have missed that trade. They were expensive so I didn't pull the trigger. Plus I was looking for a little more downside. The open interest tripled on these things yesterday, making me believe that this trade will work out. I will move to the July 40s if necessary I guess. I don't like chasing moves though. I don't like missing them either. I suppose I will wait to see if gold gets back to below $380 before I do anything but who knows? And so the dilemma of trading continues. It is such a frustrating game sometimes. Somehow, during times like these, you've just got to stay focused and keep believing in yourself. The markets will do what they do. Patience, discipline and remaining motivated must be kept in the forefront. Opportunities will present themselves if you keep paying attention. It is not easy but it must be done. The rewards will come in the future. You've got to believe that or you're doomed...

A nothing day in the stock market today. Very unusual during options expiration week. Dow, OEX and Nasdaq all flat on light volume. Advance/declines about even. Signals are mixed and only a fool would take a position with only 2 days left and no clear direction. Am I a fool? Have been in the past so you never know. Gold was down $4 but the XAU and NEM rallied from the morning lows and are now positive. I can't figure that out. I'm guessing it's option week related but I don't know. Could be that the smart money is buying now in anticipation of higher gold prices in the near term. Gold is at $384 and I would like to get long if it gets in the $370s. I still want the July NEM 37.5s. They are too expensive right now in my opinion and I would like to get them for under a buck. I don't like it when the stocks and gold diverge because it is hard to tell what is really going on. I'll remain patient if I can. Maybe getting the options next week if all goes well. About to close on a really flat day. Summer doldrums already? Could be...

Greenspan spoke today after the inflation report. He said don't worry about inflation. Basically, that's it. Market rallied good, up over 80 points on the Dow at one point. However we have sold off in the final hour and were up only around 10 points. Now coming back with 15 minutes to go, up about 40. Bonds had their best day in quite a while, up big. Advance/declines at least 3 to 1 positive. Volume looks light again, even with options expiration week. Gold was up $4 with the XAU up a couple points and NEM up a point. I don't want to think that I have missed that trade here. I am hoping the gold market will come back and set up a better double bottom for the July options. But maybe it won't. Time will tell and I will not chase it here. Any other trades on the horizon? Doubtful for this week if I can maintain some discipline. I still think we will rally this week with the OEX approaching 560. But I don't have enough conviction to back that up with cold hard cash. I suppose I'll wait for gold and see what happens...

Interesting day today as we sold off from the opening. Dow off 75 points, OEX down 5. There can be a case made that we closed right on the short term uptrend line. Perhaps with favorable inflation data tomorrow we can hold here. But that remains to be seen. The advance/declines were horrible today with declines ahead 5 to 1. Volume again was light. Never trust mondays is another often used cliche. However when the McClellan oscillator number comes out later today, I'm sure it will be negative, turning the summation index down. This implies lower prices. However sometimes after a move into positive territory for the oscillator, a move down through the zero line is what is known as a buy spike. This is a chance to get long for those who missed out on the first move. Confusing, yes but good to know anyway. Since I have no clear convictions at this time, I'm on the sidelines as far as the OEX is concerned. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM got pounded, down 3 and over a point respectively. We are getting to the area where a double bottom may form. I am ready to buy July NEM calls. If it holds at the weekly uptrend line on the XAU, the trade will work. If it doesn't then I get right out with a small loss. I hope I'm hearing this, "A small loss". Anyway, the options have a lot of time premium in them, however if this trade is right profits will ensue. XAU is at 80 and change, would like to pull the trigger on this one at 78. Hopefully this week, purchasing the NEM July 37.5's at under a buck. Tomorrows inflation data will be important for the overall market and gold itself, so it should be a pretty interesting day. Wish I had the guts to be long the OEX here but there will be better times to try and be a hero. See you at sunrise...

Sunday afternoon. Checked the longer term gold charts yesterday. Looks like we are getting to oversold territory there as well as the short term. Now if the weekly XAU uptrend line holds, you've got yourself as trade. I'll be looking at July NEM calls as a proxy for gold again. Would like to see NEM get down to around 36 again. I'm not sure but it might take a little while for a base to form this time. And therein lies the usual problem with trading. You just never know for sure. You take your best shot and see what happens. The only predictable thing about it is its unpredictability. However that is the game plan as of now for gold. The OEX is not giving any decent signal one way or the other. I will hopefully stay on the sidelines unless something decent appears. Lots of economic data to be released this week. But we are also heading into summer, when people take vacations, the kids get out of school and the markets are not in the forefront of moneymovers minds as they are at other times during the year. So the sideways action since the beginning of the year could continue along with the light volume. Maybe we will head up to the top of the trading range. Time will tell. See ya tomorrow.

An unexpected day off. And coming rather closely behind Memorial Day weekend. Another welcome break from the action. The S&P futures are off 3 points, the dollar is stronger and gold hasn't moved that much. I can always anticipate what will happen next week but you can never be sure. It doesn't look like there will be a clear signal for the OEX. I am waiting for the XAU to get to the weekly uptrend line and that could happen this week. My prognosis is that when the Fed raises rates at the end of the month it will only be a 1/4 point and the dollar will go lower after that announcement, sending gold higher. I'll look to play NEM again as a proxy for gold. There are inflation numbers coming up this week but they haven't affected the price of gold lately as far as I can tell. We could be entering the summer doldrums period. Although some would claim we have been there for a while. And they may have a valid argument. We are stuck in a trading range with lighter than usual volume. It's been going on for weeks. Which makes the trading tough. If there is no real price movement, they're just aren't any good profit opportunities. I guess you could be an option writer and take some cash. But I'm here to trade and take the writers money. But that is for another day. I'll be taking it easy, checking the headlines and the charts. It will be tough to find a play for next week and the prudent path may be on the sidelines. Patience and discipline are extremely important traits to have sometimes. But it ain't easy...

Kind of a nowhere, light volume, ahead of the extended weekend day. Dow up around 20 points with 20 minutes to go. OEX up about a point. Gold up a little along with the XAU and NEM. I'll be patient there. Option expiration week coming up with some inflation reports. Will short the OEX if it sets up that way or go long if it comes back to the trendline. This also could be one of those rare times where a trade isn't warranted during expiration week. But I'll be looking for something. More this weekend...

Around 20 minutes left, Dow down around 55 points. OEX off 4. I guess we were due for some type of pullback. But how long will it last? There is a short-term uptrend line coming in around 449 on the OEX. I'll get long there if I have the guts. The divergences mentioned yesterday have come to fruition already. No time for the hesitant. Gold, the XAU and NEM got clobbered today. I'm now wondering if the weekly uptrend line will hold, if and when we get there. But I'll play it when it happens. However there could be a shift in the value of the dollar here which seems to be the driver of gold. The dollar is gaining value. As one would expect with the prospect of higher interest rates. At least that's how it used to be. I'll keep an eye on it. But the nearterm play will be getting long the OEX when it reaches the uptrendline. Could happen tomorrow. Long weekend ahead. Advance/declines weak today. Volume nothing special. Still could be considered overbought even with today's action. On a longer term idea if we get a third higher price with a lower McClellan oscillator reading then that would be the ideal spot for a purchase of OEX puts. A 3rd divergence is sometimes the catalyst for an extended move. But you can't say there wasn't any warning for today's action. Dow off now more than 60. Profit taking before the long weekend?

Halfhour to go. Market started lower, midway went higher, now flat. Would like to short the OEX with some puts but will wait. Overbought here but not drastically so. Gold, the XAU and NEM all down. Will try and be patient there and wait for the next month option cycle. We'll see. I have some other commitments after the close and cannot rant on here as usual. Will maybe get short before the weekend if strength lasts that long. We have higher prices and a lower McClellan oscillator. We have declines ahead of advances today. Divergences to be sure. Timing will be key. Will it work? Stay tuned.

A big up day with the Dow tacking on 140 points and the OEX up over 8 points. The OEX has broken its multi-week downtrend line and the Dow is right at that same line along with the S&P 500. Advance/declines were good. The only thing missing was the volume, which was light. That could be a monday factor or it could mean that this OEX breakout is a fakeout. I'm not sure what to think but I'm a believer for now. There just weren't any sellers. Perhaps the expiration gyrations are starting early due to the unexpected market close this friday due to former president Reagans death. I don't know. Gold was up 3 bucks with both the XAU and NEM advancing. I'm still looking for lower prices before entering a trade but I could be missing the boat there as well. Would like to have the guts here to short the overall market and possibly will tomorrow if another light volume rally takes place. It's risky though and a more prudent path would be to stay on the sidelines. Suppose I should have gotten long last week but hindsight is easy. It's foresight that's giving me problems...

S&P futures are off a little bit and gold is up a tad. The dilemma at this point is that there is no clear signal in a sideways market. There are 2 weeks until option expiration. Is the gold correction over? Which way will the Dow move? At this point, I have no answers. I should stay on the sidelines until something clearly appears. That's what I should do. But the markets call like the sirens on a forbidden island. I've somehow got to find a way to remain patient. Even if it means waiting until July to make a trade. If a good signal appears, then I will act. If not, I'll have to wait. It's real money I'm trading with, not some fantasy account. It's hard to remember that sometimes. And so it goes. I suppose if we are weak in the early part of the week I'll look to get some calls. If we rally up to the multi-week downtrend line in the OEX early I'll look to short it there. Gold is a different story. I would like to get long but am not sure if this is the right spot. It could be. But I think I will wait for the stochastic to get down under 20 on a daily basis. Plus a 50% or better pullback from the 3 week rally. That would be a more logical entry point. But ya never know. I was also looking at PFE but that's an iffy proposition also. Trading is hard but having patience is harder. Globex quotes unchanged now. I suppose that trading is a battle with oneself and the markets at the same time. If it was so simple everyone would always win and nobody would ever lose. But we know better than that. It is a sometimes cruel game that pits you against some of the best minds and the most money available. Money moves around and you hope to follow it and take a little for yourself if you can. But make no mistake it is tough, time consuming and treacherous. This game will eat you alive. The markets don't care who you are or where you came from. It's not for everybody. Before you get started, you'd be wise to find out if it's for you...

The market rallied on a strong jobs report again. But the volume was weak and we finished way off the highs at around plus 45 points on the Dow. Were up over 100 at one point. I still think the trend is up but we might pause for a bit. Which would give me a chance to get some calls going into expiration the week after next. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU and NEM were up good, over a point and a half and 90 cents respectively. Still think waiting on those is the best play for now. Will check the charts over the weekend. We are in a rangebound market overall. Patience is required, however, hard to do. There will be some decent opportunities in the next 2 weeks. I hope to find them. But I don't see any explosive moves at this point. Could be an early indication of the summer doldrums. Will get back here this weekend...

10 minutes to go. Dow down around 50 points, OEX down, gold down, XAU down, NEM down. OEX relieving its overbought condition. I still think the trend there is up and will look now to get long when I feel it is appropriate. Early next week possibly, depending on what happens tomorrow. The XAU needs to get back to the weekly uptrend line for a long position to be established. I feel that will happen within the next couple of weeks, hopefully. There was a good sell signal for the OEX here but the options I was looking at were priced too high. I think this pullback is just a breather. I'll have to check where support comes in and look to get long there. I think that idea will work. But nothing is for certain when it comes to the markets. Bias to the upside though, I still believe. Dow now down 60 near the close. Tomorrow beckons...

10 minutes to go. Dow is up 70 points. Continuing to stay overbought. We have just broken a downtrend line. However the volume is light. Advance/declines are solidly positive. There is a more significant downtrend line at around 552 on the OEX, which is around 4 points away on that index. When and if we get there, I'm buying some puts. The short-term indicators are overbought. They have stayed that way long enough. Perhaps fridays employment report will be a catalyst for a sell-off. I don't know. Gold is down $3 and the XAU was weaker earlier but has come back and also bounced off an uptrend line around 3 weeks in the making. NEM broke that same line on its chart yesterday. I'm on the sidelines there but would like to get long. No clear signal yet. My attention will be given to the OEX on the anticipation of getting short at the above mentioned downtrend line. Perhaps we will get there tomorrow. If we just break through it then I'll try to take a small loss. However with this overbought condition, I believe some type of pause or pullback is in order. But with the markets, ya never know. No time to be patient if it gets to the 552 level. Puts, just buy'em. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Kind of a light volume tuesday after a long weekend. Market was higher earlier, sold off and now is coming back into the close. I don't think the scalp I had in mind would have worked. We are staying overbought on the OEX. If it continues for another couple of days, I will get short before the employment number on friday. Declines are slightly ahead of advances. Dow off 5 points with 15 minutes to go. Gold is interesting. Actual gold price has not moved and the dollar is weaker. XAU and NEM are off pretty good right now, a point and a half and 60 cents respectively. Considering the price of gold hasn't moved, this could be telling for the days to come. Or not. The weekly XAU implies higher prices but the daily charts do not. Will we come all the way back to the weekly uptrend line or not? Should I go out an extra month on the options? How far will we retrace the recent upmove? Too many questions and not enough answers. No trades for now, however if the OEX stays up for a couple days I'll look to get short for a scalp. But the longer-term trend is up and now the Dow is up 20 points. Tough game to play. It was nice to have a little break over the weekend. But now it is back to reality. Successful trading requires effort, self-denial and grim perseverance. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Ahh yes. It's a holiday. Memorial Day. Our markets are closed. The S&P futures are up a little over a point. Gold is up a little over a dollar. What will be the gameplan for the upcoming week? I'd like to short the OEX tomorrow on some strength for a scalp. But it's risky. And the option prices are still a little high with 3 weeks to go. I do believe the trend is up. I should probably wait for a pullback and then get long into the expiration. I want some gold calls but it is just going straight up and not cooperating with me for a pullback entry point. I'll have to wait I guess. Employment number on friday will loom large. Might just wait for that. The inherent difficulties of trading are apparent. Nobody can predict the future, yet that is what you are trading on. You really just give it your best shot and see what happens. Because anything can happen. Even the most so-called perfect set-ups can fail. But you play the odds and keep working at it. You make it happen just by paying attention and having the discipline to be patient. Pick your spots. There is always another trade and the markets aren't going anywhere. They will always be there for the next trade. The uncertainty is part of the game. You can't control the markets but you had better be able to control yourself. It's an ongoing battle...

Sloppy nowhere pre-holiday session. Markets not moving much as to be expected. Still overbought and a short play really is in order for a scalp. Would not be surprised to see a down tuesday when we reopen. If we get some strength tuesday morning maybe I'll do it. Otherwise it's time to relax for a few days. I'll get back here sometime this weekend...

Another solid up day. Dow up 100 points with around 20 minutes to go. OEX is right up against a downtrend line. It is overbought. I would like to have the guts to short it here for a scalp. But it can stay overbought for a while. And if it breaks through this line it will take off, short-term. It is a trade set-up, but I won't do it. Actually for the equity markets the way to play here is from the long side. Gold is up $7 today. However the XAU is not taking off and only up a point and change. NEM is up less than 50 cents. I think this is the end of the upmove in the XAU for now. It should fall back to its uptrend line here I think. If and when it falls back will be when I have to decide to trade it or not. I still would like to sit out this week, if possible. Tomorrow is a friday before a long holiday weekend. Should be slow. I'm going to sit it out. Hopefully.

Half hour to go. Market not doing much today. Choppy action, running in place. Advance/declines solidly positive though. We are getting overbought but the options are still pricey. Waiting this week out should be the course of action. Gold was barely up and a doji has appeared on the futures after an uptrend. My hope is that it takes a rest here for a while. The ideal situation would be a pullback again to the weekly uptrendline on the XAU. But the markets hardly ever accommodate the ideal. NEM is down around .25, while the XAU is flat. I will be looking to buy calls on a pullback. As always timing will be the key and the most difficult thing to do. Long holiday weekend coming up. Tomorrow should be the last day this week for serious money. GDP revision comes out. So I should take it easy. Observe and recharge my mental batteries. Let this month finish and have June begin. I suppose it is best not to burn out on the trading. It can eat you up and affect other areas of your life if you're not careful. You have to be aware of what's happening in the trading world but it doesn't have to consume you all the time. You gotta pick your spots. Taking a mental break is good. Sure, you eat, live and breath the markets. However there is room for other things. And clearing out your brain once in a while will make it fresher for the trading days ahead. So I will go ahead and relax for the rest of this week and the long weekend. But always on the lookout for new ideas and the next trade...

Huge rally today. Dow up 150 points with 20 minutes to go. Volume better than lately. XAU and NEM up decent also. Advance/declines solidly positive. And so it goes. The decline is over. Is this the beginning of the next leg up in a bull market or are we just going to the top of the trading range? And where are the profitable trades from here? It's never easy. I'll have to wait for the OEX to get to the downtrend line and decide from there. We are getting short-term overbought now. NEM is another story. I'd like to see some type of pullback before taking a position but that may not happen. I suppose I'll be on the sidelines for now. Not much else I can do. The markets will always go where they want and do what they want. They say the market is always right. I think that the markets simply exist. They are there for those good enough to take profits out of them, either long or short. You have got to learn how to listen to them and you've got to know when to act. It's an ongoing education...

Mixed signals on a light volume monday. The Dow was down a few points. Opened higher went lower and meandered about. The advance/declines were highly favorable, over 2 to 1. But the market couldn't get going. Up volume was 3 to 1 over down volume. If good internals can't get this thing going, what will? Higher McClellan Oscillator readings yet no upside in price. I'll have to sit it out for now on the OEX. Gold did not move much today, however the XAU rallied at the close as did NEM. Now I have a dilemma. Was the bounce off the weekly uptrendline it? Meaning once we hit that line there is no way to go but up? Will prices simply take off with no pullback? It is getting overbought but will it stay there? Should I simply buy some calls now? These are the things that make it difficult. This is why it is a most challenging game to play. There are no set answers. There is no exact strategy. How can it be done? Patience and discipline can go a long way to solving these mysteries. On gold as on the OEX, I should sit it out this week. Observe and get ready for a good signal if one comes up. It also would give me time to look at some other possibilities with different stocks and indices. That's what I should do. Time will tell what I actually do...

Sunday afternoon. S&P futures up a bit. Will try to take it easy this week. Maybe get long the OEX if there is a decent sell-off. Will look for gold to hopefully pullback and set up another long position. End of the month and a long weekend coming up. Patience should be the key for this week. No clear signal but the summation index has turned up and the press is sounding bearish. A good reason to look to get long. But I'll try to stay on the sidelines. Options will be pricey with a new cycle beginning. More tomorrow...

Reflections on the last trade. Lucky. Piss poor mechanics. Good call on the entry point. I believe getting long when the XAU falls back to the weekly uptrend line will prove rewarding. But will it fall back that far again? That is the question. Can I improve my trading execution? That is another question. Options have expired and we will now roll over to the June options. It would probably be wise to hold off on anything next week. But who knows. More importantly, I've got to move on and get better. There is plenty of money out there and I think I have some legitimate ideas. But my performance in the heat of trading must change. How to do that will require discipline. It's up to each trader to find it. I'll keep searching...

Expiration friday. The market opened stronger, up around 80 points on the Dow at one point. Only up about 20 now with 20 minutes to go. Gold opened higher and closed up over $6. The XAU is up a couple points and NEM is up too. I sold the NEM calls earlier this morning for a profit of over 120%. Dumb luck. It was a terrible trade. If all the rest of my trades are like that one I won't survive. Should have been out on wednesday with a triple when the signal was there. Horrible trade. How can you make over 100% and call it a bad trade. Easy. Because it was. The mechanics were bullshit. It is better to do the trade properly and lose a little money than it is to screw it up like I just did. That was an extra 2 days of needless stress and work. I probably could have squeezed another 10% to 20% out of the thing today but couldn't do that either. It's the mental pain that is killing me. I know it's about making money but it is also about trading well. If you trade well the money will come. I will say the original premise of bouncing off the weekly XAU uptrendline was correct. I think that there will be more long gold trades to come in the weeks ahead. But they must be executed better than this one. More this weekend.

I have a meeting at my day job so I don't have a lot of time today. Half and hour to go and the market is choppy. Light volume. NEM and the XAU are both down. The NEM options are under water and not moving. The price of NEM is right at the strike price. An up day tomorrow and maybe I can salvage a small loss. A down day and I'm cooked. The mental side of the game takes over when the mistakes are so terrible. It eats away at you. It diminishes your capability for finding other trades. It stifles your ideas. It drains the mental resources and takes away the ability to reason. Mistakes cost you so much more than money. There are no excuses. You must look in the mirror and face yourself.

Crazy day. Cray-zee. Dow up big early, over 100 points. I had put in an order for calls overnight but it wasn't filled so I canceled it. Market hangs around and then starts falling. Ends up the day down 30. I thought about buying some calls when it approached a short-term uptrend line. But I didn't. And it just kept on dropping. Gold was up $7. XAU and NEM up big for the first part of the day. My options on NEM had almost tripled at one point midway through the day. But then they started to drop. And NEM went further down. Like the idiot I am I just sat there lamenting how much they were worth an hour ago. And sat there as they went all the way back to the price I bought them. The agony and the pain. What kind of dope would do that? There are 2 freakin' days left on these things. A decent profit goes up in thin air. How could I be so stupid? Everything was going the trades way and I just let it slip away. They closed with a small gain but did I do the prudent thing and get out? Of course not and now I still have them with 2 days to go. With a reversal on the candlestick staring me in the face. I must be a moron. Really, I need to just get out of this thing, stop torturing my brain and move on. If I can't take a decent profit, when these things are about to expire, then when can I? What an idiot. If there is any kind of upmove tomorrow, I have to bail out. But then again, I said that yesterday...

15 minutes until the close on tuesday. Monday was a down day for the Dow, over 100 points to the downside. Gold was up a couple bucks, the XAU and NEM rallied early but then came way off their highs. The NEM options are under water. That was monday. Today we have a rally on the market, Dow up around 70 points now and at a multi-week downtrend line. If we can get through this line a good rally will follow. And that is the question. The volume today is light. I would like to get some calls. The McClellan Oscillator will be close to passing through the zero line to the upside and that is a buy signal. However that hasn't happened yet. Gold was down around 4 bucks today. Surprisingly the XAU hasn't gone down much and neither has NEM. In fact in the last hour for some reason these things turned around and are now positive. The NEM options are still losers but are getting close to break even. I need to exit this trade. That is reality. However I will give it another day due to the latest rise near the close here. Maybe it will work out after all. It would be lucky for sure if it does. Can the market break through here? That is the major question for a trade into the expiration. Longer term, I'm getting some good signals that this is a nice spot to put longterm money to work. Would love to have the guts to buy some calls here. But I will have to wait it out because the signal isn't exactly clear and the time left is short. Will still have to decide what to do with the NEM calls. It's a tough game and we all new that going in...

Sunday afternoon, S&P futures off fractionally, gold not moving. I need to come up with a gameplan for the week ahead. I suppose the NEM trade should get my full attention. I'm already in it. Monday will be important. NEM is right on the downtrend line that took a few weeks to build. If we can somehow get through it on monday, higher prices and a winning trade will be most likely. If we get turned back then the trade will probably be a loser. My thinking is that interest rates will back of from their recent highs, sending the dollar lower and providing a boost for gold. But time is of the essence, the options expire on friday. I need to be out by the close tuesday if we rally. That's a guess but I need to have it in my mind that time is not on my side here because it isn't. As for the OEX, if it goes higher early in the week I'll look to short it. If it falls early, I'll look for calls. It's a tricky proposition either way. It probably wouldn't hurt to wait until the June option cycle. But we'll see what happens. Probably won't have a lot of time to write here tomorrow as I'm playing golf after the market closes. But first things first, NEM tomorrow...

Market went nowhere yesterday, Dow up 2 points. Volume was light. NEM made a comeback and the options I own are right back where I purchased them. XAU was also up. This trade is tricky with only a week left. My thoughts are that I've got to get out early in the week. NEM is still out of the money and these things could get worthless in a hurry if the price moves down. If I had any brains, I would get the hell out ASAP. However the weekly candlestick chart for NEM now shows a bullish engulfing pattern which should lead to higher prices. Gold itself is still under $380. We'll see what happens. The OEX is another story. Not a clear signal at this point. I'd still like to wait for a lower close with a higher oscillator number. It's options expiration week. You gotta be nimble and quick, not to mention cautious yet willing to take a chance. There will be opportunities to make money but it's gotta be fast. Hopefully I'm up to the challenge. More tomorrow...

Sloppy day on the markets. Down, up, down, really not much to write home about. Dow down around 35, overall market down a little less. Gold down a couple bucks, XAU and NEM both down. The NEM options are now under water. Must decide where to take the loss at this point. Unless tomorrow is a good day for these things, they're losers. No clear signal for the OEX but if it keeps rallying, I'll look for a shorting opportunity next week. Longer term we are getting to the point of a good entry. I threw some cash in my mutual funds this past monday. If we go lower I'll toss in some more. We'll see what tomorrow brings for this NEM trade. Need some positive movement or it's dead.

Incredible turnaround today. 10 minutes to go and we were down over 160 points and now we are positive on the day. Made a new intraday low earlier but the advance/declines were better than recent and the McClellan Oscillator was nowhere near the -364 it was a couple days ago. I suppose that was a short term spot to get long if you were quick enough and had some balls. I was looking for a close of day non-conformation. It's not going to happen. Should rally from here and would be surprised if we didn't. This was a textbook short-covering rally. Incredible. Decline is over. Gold opened higher, NEM rallied but has since fell back. Options right where I bought them. A couple inflation numbers in the next couple days. Price of gold hasn't moved much so far this week. We'll see if that lasts. Don't know if that trade will work. Will be looking for an OEX long trade on some weakness after today. But that was some move. I think that the fact we got so blown out on the indicators and the market was not allowed to drop as usual means that higher prices are ahead for the longer term. It's just a guess as usual. More tomorrow...

Had to bounce and it did. Dow up around 30 points, advance/declines pretty good. When the McClellan Oscillator gets as negative as it was yesterday, -364, its gotta bounce. Readings that low are very rare. But we should have gotten more of a decline in my opinion. NEM bounced a little today, XAU up a point. Options hanging in there for now. CISCO announcing after the bell, could be a catalyst for tomorrow. I'm pressed for time, more tomorrow...

Another down day on heavy volume. But again, not even close to as far down as it could have been. The Anti-crash team at work. New lows expand to over 870. Over 3000 declines again! And the market only down around 125 points on the Dow? The McClellan Oscillator is blown out at -364. Rarely and I do mean rarely, does it ever get this low. And when it does the market is cascading. But this is the world we live in, election year and all. Fed/White House/Treasury propping this thing up. And it will work that way. Anyway we will bounce tomorrow or the next day. With an oscillator reading like that there is no other way. I'd like to get some OEX calls here but I will hopefully wait. Good support for the OEX at 520 and we are at 532. I'll look for the price to get near 520 with a higher McClellan Oscillator reading as a non conformation and get long then. I anticipate that happening within the next 2 weeks before the expiration on the 21st. Gold was a little lower today however the XAU found support here as it should and bounced a couple points. NEM was up around 80 cents and the options I purchased are showing a small profit. Still not sure about this trade. I'm giving it some time though as a decent bounce should occur from these levels. Also the open interest expanded on the calls I bought and that always seems to be a good sign. Or not. So I'll look for a bounce in the Dow here soon and keep an eye on the NEM trade.

Sunday eve. S&P futures up a bit, gold down a couple bucks. Don't think the gold trade will work. Now a little more on fridays market action. The Dow should have been much lower. It was manipulated. How would I know? Because I've been a student of the markets for almost 2 decades. I see things that don't add up and search for reasons. I have heard elsewhere of an anti-crash committee but did not believe it was true. But it is. Fridays advance/decline action was the worst in a long time. Over 3000 declines. This never happens. New lows expanded to over 700. The McClellan Oscillator reached minus 275 and the Summation index blew through the zero line. And only down 125 points on the Dow? Bullshit. The trin indicator was actually .61. On a day like that it easily should have been 2 or more. A lot more. The powers that be simply bought the big caps that weigh heavily on the Dow and S&P 500 to keep it propped up. I can't claim to say that I know exactly where this comes from because I am simply a regular person with no inside contacts. But it is government and/or industry related. The markets aren't fair and never will be but you take that into consideration when you play the game. But fridays manipulation was blatant. Only to those who pay attention mind you. And that group is pretty small. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Just a quick note today. I entered a gold trade. The XAU got hammered again yesterday. It is now around 78. I bought some May NEM calls. I got them near the low of the day. There is strong support for the XAU at 76-78. Gold itself is below $380 at around $378. If this is going to work it's going to work here or not at all. NEM is around $35.40. I've got the 37.5's. Sometimes when you enter a trade you think this is really going to work. Other times you enter and you think that you have made a mistake. This trade already feels like a mistake to me. Not a lot of money involved, so it won't be so painful. But I don't know, I've just got a bad feeling about this one. But who knows? Maybe that's good. The technicals are blown out. The stock market is another matter. I will explain more tomorrow. However yesterday was a classic example of the Fed/White House/Treasury/Whoever Anti-Crash Team at work. More tomorrow...

Almost the close on a down day. Dow off around 70 points. Was down around 130 at one point. Advance/declines were horrible. Gold weak. Will get long gold tomorrow if it continues to drop. Employment number tomorrow. We are at the crossroads. Either it holds up here or it will unravel. Summation index at the zero line. Would have liked to have the guts to buy calls today. But just couldn't do it. Will do a long gold trade here soon though. Tomorrow should be interesting. It is really out of character for me not to take on a trade here. Profit opportunities are there. But without a clear signal, I'm on the sidelines. Maybe my discipline is getting better. Maybe I'm just too dumb or scared to do anything. Whatever the case, a trade is coming soon. Or not...

Summer doldrums in May. No movement to speak of. Dow off 6 points. Overall advance/declines slightly positive. Waiting for friday I guess. And even then it may not do anything. XAU down and I hope it goes lower. Would love to have the guts to buy calls in both the OEX and XAU here. But there is no good signal. In fact we are moving to where a short play may possibly be in order for the market. Summation index still pointing down and if we drop here it will be big. I've got to somehow have the discipline to stay out and wait for a decent signal. It ain't easy.

About 25 minutes to go. The Fed left rates unchanged. The Dow rallied about 60 points. But we've turned around and are now down 20. Tricky call here. I'm still on the sidelines. And it sucks. For gold has rallied big today. XAU up over 4 points at one time, still up 3 1/2. NEM up over a buck and a half. Profit opportunity missed. It was there. I was there. But I didn't do anything. Which is worse, losing money or missing opportunity? Some would say losing money is worse. That could be true. But you lose and you move on. Missing an opportunity lingers. It eats away at your mental capital. If gold retreats from here back to the level it started out today, I'll get long. No questions asked. It still is blown out, just not as much. But if it just rallies straight up from here, there will be no chance to profit on the longside. Now the Dow is another story. Are OEX calls still in order? Maybe. The employment number is friday. That will set the real tone, as opposed to the Fed. But how will it be interpreted? And what does the market do from now until then? I don't have a clear signal. Summation index is still pointing down but it is improving. And approaching the all important zero line. Nobody said it would be easy. But you can't make any money if you're not at the table, inspiring words from a Trader Vic or perhaps a poker player. I'm still thinking long side here...

Dow up 88 points. Volume decent. It had to bounce, really. Now the question is was it just a bounce or is the decline over? I wish I knew. I want to say it's over. I want to get long weakness tomorrow. I want to but will I? It is a tough game to play. The Fed will announce its policy and I'll take it from there I guess. It will take some guts to get long ahead of that statement but that may be the only way. Gold went nowhere and I will get long there on any weakness this week. It's blown out to the downside. I would like a position before fridays employment report. Now what to do about the OEX? Buy calls? Another twist to the saga is that we still have 3 weeks left on the May options. Plenty of time for things to change more than once. What's the least likeliest scenario? The market going to new recovery highs? Then that's what will happen to screw the most players. Yeah, I wish I could see that far. But this game isn't made for wishing. I'll wait for the Fed news and go off of that. I believe an uptrend is at hand. Must find a way to make money...

I suppose in keeping with this weekends theme, post time is 6:30 PST tomorrow. Sunday afternoon and a gameplan for the upcoming week is in order. The market is oversold. It declined on heavy volume last week. The summation index is pointing down and nearing the zero line. That is important. The market tends to fall apart at the zero line. Or not. And therein lies the problem. Markets usually remain overbought for some time. That has been my experience. But they don't remain oversold for too long. And we are oversold now. We will stay there if this thing starts to unravel. I want to get long. I want to buy some calls. There is some support right where we are now. Other support a little lower. The Fed meets on tuesday. The employment report is on friday. Catalysts to be sure. But for what? I'd like to have the discipline to wait for the Fed to get out of the way. There is a big negative on one of my indicators that needs to be replaced on tuesday. Most likely by another negative. If that's the case, I'll get long on wednesday. But who knows? I think we're at a crossroads and this week will be the determining factor. If we continue down, it will be substantial. If not maybe we can turn here and head up to the top of the trading range. I have been looking at gold. Gold is blown out on the dailies and weeklies. It is due to bounce. There is money to be made. The XAU is around 80 and major support comes in at 78-76. I want to get long NEM as a proxy for gold. Perhaps, again, after the Fed meeting. It is hard to say. NEM doesn't look like it has as much support here as the XAU. But the XAU option prices are overdone. Too much volatility has been priced into them. We shall see. So it should be a busy week, with some type of trade taking place. More after the close tomorrow. I'm hoping for a light volume nothing day as we wait for Big Al and his pals...

5 minutes until the close. I put in an overnight order to purchase some NEM calls as a play on gold. Gold has been dropping here for quite a while. The daily and weekly charts are all oversold. I would like to trade more than just the OEX, if I can be good enough to do it. Order did not get filled, I priced it for perfection. NEM up a little today. Might try this again in a couple days if all goes right. Dow was down over 100 points about an hour ago but has come back. Today might have been the day to buy some calls. Could not bring myself to do it however this might be the spot. We've been down and choppy. Approaching a trendline at around 540 on the OEX. Short-term oversold on some indicators. I would like to get the Fed meeting out of the way. Summation Index still pointing down. Perhaps if we can build a small base here it might be a worthwhile trade. Will keep an eye on that and gold. Gotta run...

20 minutes to go and a good sell-off today. Dow off 130 points. No good reason really. Gold getting hammered too. Is it setting up for a purchase of some calls? Perhaps. The 1st quarter GDP number will be out tomorrow. That will be the catalyst for the rest of the week. It's also the end of the month on friday. Summation Index is still pointing down but I feel that has to change. It's been going down for quite a while now. It can't last forever like that unless we are about to really fall apart. It's a possibility but I don't think it's a probability. I'd like to have the guts to get some calls here but I think the best strategy at this time would be to wait until after the Fed next tuesday. There is no clear signal from my indicators to do anything here. Perhaps getting a little short-term oversold after today. I should be patient and stay on the sidelines if I can. We'll see...

It's tuesday. Monday was another nowhere day. Dow down around 30 points on light volume. Today we had some gains early, the Dow was up 80. But we've come off the highs and are up 30 with a half hour to go. It looks like maybe a little downtrend could start here but I don't think it would last long. Things are still mixed here, with no clear signal. The Summation Index is still pointing down but like I said before this can't go on forever. The CBOE call/put ratio is getting bearish. And we've got the Fed next week. It's really time for me to sit back, be patient and wait for a good entry. Can I do that, is the main question...

Not much movement on friday. The Dow was up around 10 points. Had poor advance/decline numbers again, about 2 to 1 negative. I'm not so sure about this rally because of that. However the summation index has been going down for over 2 months now and I think it needs to turn around soon. I'll have to sit it out until a legit signal appears, if I can. It's mixed for now. Discipline is key. I'll try my best but it's tough with all that money out there to be made. Not much else to say. It's a waiting game...

Market up strong today. Dow up around 150 points with 20 minutes to go. Maybe that intermediate signal was legit. Nothing to do but wait now. For an opportunity. The option prices were high, really, to negate any odds of a trade at this point. But you never know. I'll wait for what I think is a decent signal, maybe next week...

About a half hour to go today. Kind of a mixed market. The Dow is around unchanged but the S&P 500 is up around 5 points and the Naz is up around 10 points. However the advances/declines are negative. Intermediate buy signal today on one of my indicators. I'd like to get long here but more of a base needs to be built. Hard to say. Probably best to stay out until something solid appears. But that never happens. Maybe if we are negative tomorrow and the OEX gets to 540 I'll do something. There is a trendline there. Otherwise not much else. Just trying to have the discipline to remain patient. Hope I can but ya never know...

About 10 minutes to go, market selling off on Big Als comments. Down around 90 points now. Greenspan is telegraphing higher interest rates to come with his comments on inflation and pricing power. He speaks again tomorrow. Oh Almighty Al. Moving closer to an oversold level on an intermediate term basis. Possibly getting close to a time to buy calls. A lower low on the OEX and a higher low on the McClellan Oscillator might be a trigger. Sitting out could be a good idea too. However when this thing is blown out to the downside, at least a bounce is worth a shot. I'm thinking now that the sharp rally after the March expiration was a snapback to the uptrend line that was broken. Meaning lower prices from here on out. But who knows? Summation Index still pointing down, that thing has worked. I'll have to check the charts later. Market still selling off hard into the close. Down over 100 points. See ya tomorrow...

The jury is still out on where we go from here I guess. Not much movement with light volume today. Dow off around 9 points. Summation Index still pointing down. Greenspan blabs a couple times this week. Maybe something will key off of that. I think we could go up a little here. Some intermediate term things are about to say that. Overall though, we need something to propel this market higher through the resistance. I don't see anything like that at this time. I'll try to stay on the sidelines for at least this week. Unless we get oversold pretty good. Patience is a good trait to have when you need it. Now just could be one of those times...

Sunday afternoon and where do we go from here? May options have 5 weeks to go on them so the pricing is higher in the beginning and the price moves on the options vs. the underlying is much smaller. Probably waiting a couple weeks for the next trade will be in order. But who knows? If a good signal appears, I suppose I would have to try and take advantage of it. No clear direction here. The market will have to take out its prior highs to really be bullish. That could happen but I suspect sideways activity barring a terrorist attack. But I don't really know. Reflecting on the week that was, I sure got lucky catching the low of the day on that OEX trade and making a profit. You really can't think you know anything when you make some money in this game or you will most likely just give it right back. It's happened to me a lot. Don't get me wrong, sometimes you do know something. But most of the time you don't. Do the work and give it your best shot. There is so much to know and so much to do that this isn't something I would recommend to most people. More tomorrow...

I've been busy. Here is a recap of the end of this past week. The McClellan Oscillator got down to a very oversold reading of around minus 250 on wednesday. I thought some kind of bounce would be due thursday or friday. I got up on thursday and the market was around unchanged and I had to go to the dentist. I decided that if the market got weak, I would put in an order for some calls. Not a huge order, since their is only a day and a half left for the options, but a small trade. And only if the market dropped. So before I went to the dentist I placed an order with a limit price that was so low it would take a miracle to get filled. Since the McClellan Oscillator basically went straight down I figured it was due for some kind of bounce. While I'm in the dentists chair, the market starts to drop. Dentists nowadays have TVs in the ceiling so you can watch something while they drill you. So I'm watching CNBC and thinking, could those calls actually get filled? The market was down over 50 points. I finally get back home and lo and behold I now own some calls. With one day to go before they expire. And the market came back to be up a little on the day so I already had a small profit. However IBM announced their earnings after the bell and the futures sold off. So here I sit with a couple OEX calls. I still thought it could work though. Friday comes around and the market actually opens higher. In fact if not for IBM it would have really been up. An oversold bounce it was. Of course I hold on to these things longer than I should have but it doesn't matter. It was going to be profitable. I had caught the low of the day yesterday. I sold out near the close for around a 250% gain. Of course I could have sold earlier but no complaints here. Which brings me to something that I read recently. You can know how to trade but it is the act of trading that produces results. Knowing is not acting. Thinking is not acting. Planning is not acting. Only acting is acting. I think it means something like no matter how much you put in before the trade it is the trade itself where you gotta do it. I'm always working on that and forever will be...

I've been pressed for time and not able to get back here. Market has weakened a lot since mondays close. Down around 140 points yesterday and down again today although not as much. Bonds got hammered. However the McClellan Oscillator is deeply in oversold territory and should be minus 200 something after todays action. I'd say to buy any weakness tomorrow morning for a bounce. Maybe some OEX 550 calls below $2. Sell them on any rally for a quick options expiration week double. I'd think about actually doing it but I'm trying to stay out and I do have a dentists appointment in the morning. But short term, calls would be the play. Market coming back at the close. Could be a possible hammer on the daily candlesticks. More later...

Globex futures off around 3 points on the S&P. No big developments over the weekend. We'll see how weak it is tomorrow. Of course now I wish I still had the puts working. But what can ya do? Unless a clear signal comes up, I'm gonna try and hang out this week. Could get a short-term buy for tuesday or wednesday but it would have to set up that way. Dentist on thursday, that could complicate things. We'll see how it goes. Do see some sell signals in place. Not much else to say...

Friday was a market holiday. I sold the OEX put options near the close on thursday. Had to get out. At one point they had a couple hundred dollar profit. But the market snapped back up at the end and I was lucky to get out with a small profit. The options have a week left but I couldn't take the risk. The McClellan Oscillator has moved into negative territory and the summation index is pointing down so further weakness would not be a surprise. But it's not a sure thing one way or another. I am going to try and stay out next week. Unless a clear signal emerges. It is a very difficult game. Good earnings came out thursday but the market was down 40 points. A market that doesn't rally on good news is a caution flag. We are also moving up to the previous highs. Next week will go a long way to figuring out if we are in a sustained new rally phase or what we just saw was a snapback from the decline. Time will tell...

Finally some weakness today, mainly due to trouble in Iraq. Tried to sell the OEX puts at the end of the day and did not get filled at my limit price. Was looking to just break even at this point. Volatility picked up at the end of the day with 50 point swings both ways. Most likely should have just gotten out and forget about it. This trade is a hassle. Timing on the entry was off and that threw everything into a questionable scenario. If we are weak on the open tomorrow I might be able to salvage a break-even scenario, otherwise it's just another loser. Dow down 90 points and this thing can't even get to the plus side. Advance/declines way too positive for a market down this much. Troublesome for the short side. S&P not down nearly enough with the DOW. Hopefully some bad news overnight or I'm done. At any rate I certainly will not hold this thing over a long weekend. Should have gotten out today, that is a fact.

Lackluster day. Dow up again, 12 points. It cannot continue. Overall market was a little weak. OEX down more than a point. Options barely moved. Yes, I'm still holding them for a loss but will dump tomorrow. Have to. Under better circumstances, this trade might have been profitable. But the market is too strong, the inflows won't stop until next month. I should try to find a last week of expiration stock pick to the upside. Maybe PFE, GE or MSFT. Who knows or cares? Maybe just step aside and wait for better days. Need to dump the OEX.

The market continued up today. Dow up 85 points. I bought a couple OEX puts when it was up around 35. So I'm already losing money. Divergence and negative again today. Advance declines weak. How long can this go on? As long as it wants to I guess. I've got to believe that tomorrow will be a down day. The indicators are overbought off the charts! Some kind of pullback has got to take place. Or it doesn't. I will be happy at this point to break even or just lose a couple hundred. Looks like any pullback will be short-lived and it would be wise to dump these puts tomorrow. Will it just keep going up? I fucking hope not...

And so it is sunday. The futures are off slightly. Seems like the market commentators I've read over the weekend have the same idea as me. It is a market to short. That's worrisome. I don't like it when everyone has the same idea. I will say that I've got to see some strength to short it. That will be the key. If that happens I feel confident that a profitable trade is at hand if I can just get the hell out fast. This isn't a long term deal. This is a quick scalp and be gone. We will see what unfolds tomorrow.

My thought here is to short any strength on monday. The prices were higher on friday and the McClellan Oscillator was lower. The exact opposite occurred before the recent big run-up. I'm not saying this is going to lead to a huge downmove. I don't think it will. But this could be an excellent short-term scalp for a few hundred. In on monday sometime and right back out on tuesday if all goes to plan. A couple OEX puts and then right back out after some profit. Will it work? Who knows? The overall pattern now is up, it's just a matter of how far up it will go. MSFT is looking stronger than GE at this point and I will buy some calls if it pulls back here. But the next trade will be an attempt at a scalp.

Overbought and staying there. The employment number was higher than expected and a rally ensued. Dow up almost 100 points. Did not get any calls. GE and MSFT both up good today. Advance/declines weren't all that good. Volume good though. We need a rest soon. Might try to time that. Bonds got killed today. That money might migrate to stocks. New high for the year coming up? Maybe but I don't know. How long can it stay overbought like this? As long as it likes I suppose. But I'll probably be buying some OEX puts on monday...

Market still moving higher. It will not give a decent opportunity to get in. It just kept on moving as I thought that maybe it would a few days ago. I put in an order to purchase some MSFT calls if we get a dip on the employment report tomorrow. But I doubt it will get filled. Dow up 15 points, overall market much stronger, advance/declines solidly positive. So that's it. Looks like I missed it. Now just sit around and wait for something else I guess. Will get long something if we ever get a pullback. Market overbought still and staying there. Looks like the powers that be will keep this thing propped up until at least the April expiration. See ya later...
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