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Tuesday, May 18, 2004

15 minutes until the close on tuesday. Monday was a down day for the Dow, over 100 points to the downside. Gold was up a couple bucks, the XAU and NEM rallied early but then came way off their highs. The NEM options are under water. That was monday. Today we have a rally on the market, Dow up around 70 points now and at a multi-week downtrend line. If we can get through this line a good rally will follow. And that is the question. The volume today is light. I would like to get some calls. The McClellan Oscillator will be close to passing through the zero line to the upside and that is a buy signal. However that hasn't happened yet. Gold was down around 4 bucks today. Surprisingly the XAU hasn't gone down much and neither has NEM. In fact in the last hour for some reason these things turned around and are now positive. The NEM options are still losers but are getting close to break even. I need to exit this trade. That is reality. However I will give it another day due to the latest rise near the close here. Maybe it will work out after all. It would be lucky for sure if it does. Can the market break through here? That is the major question for a trade into the expiration. Longer term, I'm getting some good signals that this is a nice spot to put longterm money to work. Would love to have the guts to buy some calls here. But I will have to wait it out because the signal isn't exactly clear and the time left is short. Will still have to decide what to do with the NEM calls. It's a tough game and we all new that going in...

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