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Sunday, May 02, 2004

I suppose in keeping with this weekends theme, post time is 6:30 PST tomorrow. Sunday afternoon and a gameplan for the upcoming week is in order. The market is oversold. It declined on heavy volume last week. The summation index is pointing down and nearing the zero line. That is important. The market tends to fall apart at the zero line. Or not. And therein lies the problem. Markets usually remain overbought for some time. That has been my experience. But they don't remain oversold for too long. And we are oversold now. We will stay there if this thing starts to unravel. I want to get long. I want to buy some calls. There is some support right where we are now. Other support a little lower. The Fed meets on tuesday. The employment report is on friday. Catalysts to be sure. But for what? I'd like to have the discipline to wait for the Fed to get out of the way. There is a big negative on one of my indicators that needs to be replaced on tuesday. Most likely by another negative. If that's the case, I'll get long on wednesday. But who knows? I think we're at a crossroads and this week will be the determining factor. If we continue down, it will be substantial. If not maybe we can turn here and head up to the top of the trading range. I have been looking at gold. Gold is blown out on the dailies and weeklies. It is due to bounce. There is money to be made. The XAU is around 80 and major support comes in at 78-76. I want to get long NEM as a proxy for gold. Perhaps, again, after the Fed meeting. It is hard to say. NEM doesn't look like it has as much support here as the XAU. But the XAU option prices are overdone. Too much volatility has been priced into them. We shall see. So it should be a busy week, with some type of trade taking place. More after the close tomorrow. I'm hoping for a light volume nothing day as we wait for Big Al and his pals...

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