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Tuesday, May 04, 2004

About 25 minutes to go. The Fed left rates unchanged. The Dow rallied about 60 points. But we've turned around and are now down 20. Tricky call here. I'm still on the sidelines. And it sucks. For gold has rallied big today. XAU up over 4 points at one time, still up 3 1/2. NEM up over a buck and a half. Profit opportunity missed. It was there. I was there. But I didn't do anything. Which is worse, losing money or missing opportunity? Some would say losing money is worse. That could be true. But you lose and you move on. Missing an opportunity lingers. It eats away at your mental capital. If gold retreats from here back to the level it started out today, I'll get long. No questions asked. It still is blown out, just not as much. But if it just rallies straight up from here, there will be no chance to profit on the longside. Now the Dow is another story. Are OEX calls still in order? Maybe. The employment number is friday. That will set the real tone, as opposed to the Fed. But how will it be interpreted? And what does the market do from now until then? I don't have a clear signal. Summation index is still pointing down but it is improving. And approaching the all important zero line. Nobody said it would be easy. But you can't make any money if you're not at the table, inspiring words from a Trader Vic or perhaps a poker player. I'm still thinking long side here...

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