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Monday, June 28, 2004

Interesting day in the overall market today. The power transfer to Iraq took place this morning in a surprise move. The market rallied in the morning with the Dow up over 80 points. Stayed up most of the day but with a couple hours to go, sold off and ended down 15 points. Not a good sign. The volume picked up some for a monday and there has been more volume lately, up or down. Advance/declines slightly negative. Stochastics have rolled over. Doesn't look good near term. Perhaps we are setting up for a rally into July expiration. It's just a guess. Gold was down a couple bucks on the news. However the XAU and NEM got slammed, down 2 1/2 and a buck respectively. My options have now lost a third of there value and this trade looks like a loser. The daily charts have broken down also. I know I said this would be a longer term trade but it isn't looking like that after today. I chased the move and now will pay for it I suppose. Foolish. I will wait for the Fed announcement on wednesday, for that was really the whole premise of this trade. Perhaps I should listen to myself once in a while when it comes to the duration of option trades. These are short term timing vehicles, not multi-month trade products. I really believe that. Perhaps this trade will work but I'm sincerely doubting that right now. It is probably best to take the loss and move on. Not get stuck watching this thing go nowhere while other opportunities possibly await. The mental anguish may take its toll. But I'll hang around until wednesday and take it from there...

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