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Wednesday, June 09, 2004

Around 20 minutes left, Dow down around 55 points. OEX off 4. I guess we were due for some type of pullback. But how long will it last? There is a short-term uptrend line coming in around 449 on the OEX. I'll get long there if I have the guts. The divergences mentioned yesterday have come to fruition already. No time for the hesitant. Gold, the XAU and NEM got clobbered today. I'm now wondering if the weekly uptrend line will hold, if and when we get there. But I'll play it when it happens. However there could be a shift in the value of the dollar here which seems to be the driver of gold. The dollar is gaining value. As one would expect with the prospect of higher interest rates. At least that's how it used to be. I'll keep an eye on it. But the nearterm play will be getting long the OEX when it reaches the uptrendline. Could happen tomorrow. Long weekend ahead. Advance/declines weak today. Volume nothing special. Still could be considered overbought even with today's action. On a longer term idea if we get a third higher price with a lower McClellan oscillator reading then that would be the ideal spot for a purchase of OEX puts. A 3rd divergence is sometimes the catalyst for an extended move. But you can't say there wasn't any warning for today's action. Dow off now more than 60. Profit taking before the long weekend?

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