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Monday, July 26, 2004

The Dow closed basically unchanged today.  It was up early, sold off and then came back.  Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was pretty good for a monday.  I'm thinking that it has got to get going on the upside sometime this week.  Not necessarily stay there but at least have some positive action pricewise.  But I don't really know.  You never do.  Gold was also unchanged on the day even though the dollar was weaker.  The XAU was down a point and a half.  NEM off about 75 cents.  Crosscurrents.  I'm thinking of putting in a couple of overnight orders for NEM.  I will price them for perfection, meaning only a best case scenario will trigger them.  NEM earnings on wednesday.  It's oversold as is the XAU.  I do want some type of position before fridays GDP.  XAU 2 1/2 points away from the multi-year weekly uptrend line.  It's just about gametime.  Timing on all trades is the most critical component for success.  Yes, you have to get the direction right.  Yes, you have to pick the proper instrument.  Yes, you must define the risk parameters.  But if you don't time it right it will cost you more than any of those things.  A trade will be entered at some time this week.  And when it is entered and at what price are very serious issues that have to be dealt with.  It's not an easy task.  However if done correctly, the action will be well rewarded... 

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