It was a one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The market bounced around and finished with a loss of 122 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has been moving up but with no conviction.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  We'll see if that occurs on Monday.  Really low volume lately and that's a sign of no interest.  We do have a chance to break higher here and violate some down trend lines but it hasn't happened yet.  I sold my SPY April calls for a 95% loss.  What more can I say about that.  Horrible trade all the way around.  I had several chances to cut the loss but never took them.  It's back to the drawing board.  GE showed some life and was up 1/3 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks as the US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are out performing here and that is a plus.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues to frustrate here as after the extreme volatility we've simply plodded around with not direction.  That can happen in the April option cycle and that was the case this time around.  We had some volatility in the beginning of the cycle but not like what we saw in February.  I believe what we're doing now is setting up for the next major leg up or down.  Either we're gonna head up and test the all time highs or we're gonna break the near term support and go lower.  I'm leaning towards the latter scenario.  May has a tendency to bring selling and if we continue to drift here without getting above the sown trend line in the S&P, I think we'll eventually head lower.  We've got options expiration week coming up and the continued risk of a headline event.  I do not anticipate making any trades in the near term.  I may go back and take another look at gold here but it is getting short term overbought.  However I just had one of my biggest losers to date and perhaps a step or two back would be the prudent path at this juncture.  The market won't wait for me to be ready though as the game is unforgiving.  I'll check things on the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night although Europe did finish well off the best levels on the day.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow was up 293 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Once again we have challenged the resistance at 2670 on the S&P 500 and once again we were turned away.  A break above there on good volume would leave no resistance all the way up to 2700.  But it just doesn't happen.  The NYA is right at its down trend line from the past two and a half months and can not get through.  The VIX has rolled back down but we aren't seeing the type of gains that constitute a legitimate rally.  On the plus side the TRAN had a good session and perhaps can break above its 50 day moving average.  GE was up about twenty cents on average volume.  Gold fell back over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I will most likely be dumping my SPY April calls tomorrow unless we see some kind of rip roaring 500 point rally.  I doubt that will happen.  This trade will be a big loser regardless.  Six days left in the April option cycle and I don't see myself making another trade in the next week or so.  My guess is that the sideways price action will probably continue.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk, so there is no need to put money to work immediately.  Earnings are coming up and although they're expected to be good there's always the possibility that the market will be more concerned with the guidance going forward.  The game is always a challenge.  I suppose we'll finish out the week tomorrow and take it from there.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading action.  We'll see how things go on Friday.   

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 218 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher but having a tough time.  The overall market didn't drop as much as the Dow.  I'm not exactly sure exactly where we're going from here but I would not be surprised if we get the common April drift.  That would be simply sideways price action that we've seen for the past couple of weeks continuing.  We've been in a range and even though it has been volatile there hasn't been any trend one way or the other.  All the talk of a double bottom hasn't actually produced one.  We need to get above the declining tops line for a legitimate rally or below the recent support for a decent drop.  GE was back down a few cents and we're still holding the $13 level.  Volume was light.  Gold found a bid and the futures gained $10.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  Perhaps the gold shares are putting in a double bottom.  Perhaps my longer term gold share call idea was the correct one.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY April calls are still big losers and I'll need to take the loss before the close on Friday at the rate things are going.  It is a frustrating trading environment at the moment, with both bull and bear sides treading water.  I'm not sure where this will all lead to be on a technical basis the indicators remain mid-range.  So we are still at the point where it could go either way.  Or do what it has been doing and going nowhere.  It appears that we are at the mercy of the next headline or political statement.  That is the game now and we'll have to adjust accordingly.  It isn't the greatest trading atmosphere but it is what we've got.  Europe was lower and Asia mostly that way as well.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Back and forth as we move on whatever headline comes out or whoever gives a speech.  China had nice things to say last night and the Dow rose 428 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  It hasn't broken out one way or the other.  It is a frustrating market for traders as we cannot get things going either way.  Only eight days left for the April option cycle.  My SPY April calls are still big losers and I'm still waiting for some kind of run up to the 2700 on the S&P 500.  Wishful thinking on my part.  GE was up 1/4 on what now passes for average volume.  Holding on to the $13 level for now.  Earnings due on expiration Friday next week.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The head of FB is speaking to Congress today.  The stock rallied.  That helped move the small stocks higher.  As I said yesterday, todays trading session was important given the final hour collapse on Monday.  Things have held up for now.  But tomorrow could be a completely different story.  No moves can be trusted at this point.  We're still in what I'd call a sideways malaise until proven otherwise.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are back to mid-range.  So once again things could go either way.  I'm not holding my breath one way or the other.  A plus today was that the volume picked up going higher.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  Another threat of tariffs or something else out of Washington will produce another tailspin.  We're at the mercy of the news and that is not the best way to attempt to trade.  We will start to get some earnings next week but it remains to be seen how the market will react.  Some of the small cap indices have moved past their short term down trend lines.  But none of the major averages have yet to do so.  If that would occur, things would turn bullish again.  However it hasn't happened and we'll need to see a high volume breakout for anything to be valid.  Or we turn back down again and look to see if the 200 day moving average continues to hold.  That's where we're at.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

Huge gains early but the market could not hold on.  The Dow gained 46 points today after being up over 400.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but the price action was definitely negative.  Not holding on to the strong positive price action is not a good sign.  It will be interesting to see where we go tomorrow.  The FB CEO will speak to Congress and it could be trouble for the market.  So could Trumps lawyers office just being raided by the FBI.  That seems to be what todays price action is implying.  So we'll see.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Trying to hold onto the $13 level here.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Trading range here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY April calls are big losers.  At this point I'm waiting and mostly hoping for a big upside day to sell at a loss.  Perhaps today was it because it looks like the market is about to crack.  Not a lot of economic data or earnings due out so it looks like we'll simply trade off of the headlines this week.  And that could be treacherous either way.  It has the feel of a skittish market about to fall off of a cliff.  If rallies cannot be sustained for more than a couple of days, it's trouble.  Today the rally could not even hold up for an entire session.  So I will be watching tomorrows price action with great concern.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Let's see where things go on Tuesday. 

The week is over and it was a crazy gonzo time for the stock market.  The Dow traveled back down today and lost 572 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The employment numbers were light but it didn't matter.  The Fed chief gave a speech and it didn't matter.  The market is at the mercy of president Trump and his twitter account.  It is a headline risk environment and that is difficult to get a handle on.  More talk of tariffs on China and the market doesn't know what to expect next.  The stock market hates uncertainty.  And that's where we're at today and for the foreseeable future.  My SPY April calls are dead.  Even if we rally 1000 points next week, it will be a big losing trade.  Now that's not Trumps fault, it's mine.  I'm really going to have to take a step back to reassess what's going on here with my trading.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume is still lighter than lately.  Gold rose $8 as the US dollar dropped on the light employment data.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed and the volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has still held on here at the 200 day moving average.  But we are getting to the point that there won't be any reason to be a buyer.  If we break here it will be ugly.  There is a better chance now that will happen.  Because if the summation index goes through the zero line, the market will collapse.  It won't just be volatile up and down the way it is now.  It will just move down.  I sincerely hope that doesn't happen but I do think it will at some point in time this year.  Perhaps now is the time.  Only a sharp sustained turnaround from here can save things for the bulls.  But at the rate we're going, that isn't going to happen.  All we need is for China to increase its tariffs over the weekend and Monday morning will be a debacle.  I'm not saying that will happen but it's out there.  Or Trump will say something else that the market doesn't like.  It's not an impossible market to trade but it is seemingly beyond my capability at this point.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled back over to the downside for the major averages and they've got room to move lower.  The market has found some buyers at these levels before but time is running out for some kind of longer than two or three day rally to take effect.  Like I said yesterday when all the media is crowing about a double bottom in the S&P 500 it just ain't gonna happen.  It's the nature of the game.  I'd be wary of what's going to transpire in the market next week.  I could be wrong and often am but this time it actually could be different.  Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of the Hand Seng.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got some follow through to the upside today as the Dow rose 240 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around and that's a plus.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today though.  Plus the volume here on the rise has been weak.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and are about mid-range.  So things could go either way here.  the rally could continue or we could roll back over.  Tomorrows jobs data and Fed speech should propel us one way or the other.  My SPY April calls are still big losers.  It will take a massive rally form here to cut the loss to something respectable.  Plenty of time left though.  GE was up another 1/8 or so on light volume.  No news or rumors here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Looks like a trading range for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It has been quite a week and I expect some fireworks tomorrow as well.  My guess is that anything can happen.  I'm looking at exiting this SPY trade by this Tuesday at the latest.  There is virtually no chance that it will ever get back to being in the money over the next two weeks.  It would take an incredible rally for that to happen and we've already had one of those this week.  The 200 day moving average has held so far for the S&P 500.  The problem is that all the talking heading in the media are saying that we've formed a double bottom in the S&P.  When everybody sees the same thing the market usually will prove them wrong.  So really anything goes from here.  The VIX appears to have rolled over here but that can turn on a dime.  It will be interesting to see how we close out the trading week.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll finish out the first week of April tomorrow.

Today was just a crazy session as the Dow had a gap lower and was down over 500 points shortly after the open.  It somehow came all the way back and then some by the close.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 230 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  It looked like the market was going to fall off a cliff and it somehow found its footing with an incredible daily rally.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  But the volatility is extreme here and no market moves can be trusted.  The 200 day moving averages have held for now.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up but not with any conviction.  My SPY April calls are still big losers as it would take a sustained rally to get them back to a manageable loss.  There are still over two weeks to go in the April option cycle.  However you cannot expect a straight up rise in price from here.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was lighter.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the day little changed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll be waiting on the employment report on Friday but in this environment it's hard to tell just what might happen tomorrow.  The Fed chair Powell will also be giving a speech on Friday.  So there's still plenty of time this week for some more crazy gyrations.  I think that the VIX can go either way from here but todays price action was encouraging for the bulls.  The small stocks did have a relatively better showing but one day doesn't make a trend.  That said, if the recent drop in tech has ended then the overall atmosphere would be a bit more positive.  However none of that matters if we simply turn back down tomorrow on the major stock indices.  As I've already said before we're at an important point at the 200 day moving average.  It's either going to be a double bottom or the bottom is going to fall out.  Perhaps we'll know by the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 389 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to sideways.  No reason for the rally as there was no reason for yesterdays decline.  Volatility seems to be the environment that we've moved into for 2018.  The small stocks are laggards here and that isn't a positive sign.  We're still oversold and still trying to hold onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 along with other major stock indices.  It really doesn't feel like things will hold up here.  My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses and only a substantial rally will change that fact.  A 50% loss at this point would seem like a win.  GE was flat on the session and did come up off of its lows.  Is it worth trying the calls here?  Only if they work.  I'm on the sidelines here.  Gold dropped $11 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  The gold shares are potentially forming a trading range here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some economic data due out tomorrow along with the Fed minutes.  We'll see if those are market drivers or not.  I'd expect more fireworks on Friday with the jobs numbers and a speech by the Fed head Powell.  I'm still waiting to see what happens here with the 200 day moving average.  If it hold s here we could see a decent move higher in the near term.  There is no doubt in my mind that if we don't hold up here things will get ugly fast.  Potentially a 1000 point down day or more.  Only because the summation index is getting close to the zero line which would allow the market to fall apart.  I'm hoping for things to hold up here so that I can dump my SPY April calls with less of a loss than I'm already holding.  But the market will go where it wants.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night but not as much as the US on Monday.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

The Dow got crushed today and started off the month of April with a loss of 458 points on average volume.  It was down 750 points during the session.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index has rolled back down.  We could be in for a heavy decline going forward.  The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average and is trying to hold on but it look like it will fail.  No news to account for todays market action and that's a worry too.  The market always knows more than we do and it appears that it knows something that we don't now.  My SPY April calls are dead and I'll have to dump them this week barring a complete reversal.  Still just under three weeks to go in the April option cycle but these options are so far out of the money now that nothing will save them.  GE lost 1/3 on good volume.  Still holding $13 for now.  I'm not looking at doing any trades here.  Gold found a bid on the stock market collapse as the futures gained almost $20.  The US dollar was little changed.  No flight to safety there.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  They did finished off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a slight chance that the SPY will hold here and produce a double bottom in the near term.  But it certainly doesn't feel like it.  More probable is that we'll get follow through selling tomorrow and much lower prices going forward.  Things could get ugly rather fast.  The summation index will start to approach the zero line and that is the area where the stock market simply falls apart.  Hasn't happened yet but it looks like that is going to be the scenario going forward.  Unless we see a rapid turnaround tomorrow and higher prices to close out the week this thing will be dropping like a rock.  Earnings won't matter because the market will be taking on a life of its own.  Stocks always drop faster than they rise.  So hold on to your hats as tomorrow will be an important session.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe was closed last night.  I'd expect to see a sea of red overseas tonight.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.    

A rally today although we did finish well off of the intra-day highs.  The Dow gained 254 points on average volume.  We were up over 400 at one point during the session.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  I did not expect such a huge gain today as I thought that the market would be quiet heading into a long weekend.  Perhaps it was the end of the month and quarter activity that drove todays trading.  My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses.  I should probably get rid of them next week regardless of the outcome.  We are still holding onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P but that could change next week.  I'll need to see an early week rally in order to cut the loss on my position.  GE was off 20 cents and the volume was good.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/2 while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was lighter than lately.  We haven't gotten completely oversold on the gold shares yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 despite todays rise.  These indicators have turned up but still have a ways to go to get to overbought.  Three weeks remain in the April option cycle.  My SPY April calls are still far out of the money.  That is why my best hope is for an early week rally next week and an exit from this trade.  We've got the employment report on Friday and I probably should not wait for that.  However I usually hold on to my trades for too long and that could always happen again.  I cannot stress enough how important it is for the bulls here for the market to hang on.  A drop below the 200 day moving average would be catastrophic for the market right now in my opinion.  I am seeing some other indicators that I follow showing buy signals on a longer term basis.  Whether or not that pans out we'll know in the coming weeks.  The indicators for the VIX have rolled over as well.  A drop below 17.5 here would break the recent uptrend line and give me some hope for the SPY trade.  Hasn't happened yet and there is no guarantee that it will.  A VIX drop to the 15 level would be a sign to try the SPY puts.  That's the way I see things there at the moment.  There will be plenty to look at over the long weekend but a break from the action is advised as well.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  It was an interesting first quarter for the stock market.  Perhaps the second quarter will be a little different but of course nobody knows for sure.  My trading in the first quarter was abysmal and can only improve from here.  It's Thursday afternoon in front of an extended weekend.  Time for a break.     

The market just hung around today despite moving up and down.  The Dow lost 9 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks are doing poorly and the market won't be going up if that remains the case.  My SPY April calls are still showing major losses.  I'm giving this trade until the middle of next week depending on what we do from here.  Probably should have dropped out yesterday.  The S&P 500 is still trying to hang on at the 200 day moving average.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Rumors still flying around on who is accumulating this stock.  Gold lost almost $20 on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume remains good to the downside.  Perhaps my idea for the GDX September calls is the wrong one.  The fundamentals for gold do remain negative in my mind.  So maybe I'll just forget about this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is moving on headlines.  Today Washington had negative things to say about AMZN and it lost 5%, leading the overall market lower.  There is some economic data coming out tomorrow but it's the day before a long weekend.  Like I said yesterday I don't see a lot of buying coming in on the last day of the month but I could be wrong.  We are at a very important juncture for the market because if we don't hold things in right here it will get ugly fast.  Maybe we'll see a short covering rally tomorrow before the weekend.  But that is simply a hope at this point.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are oversold.  However they show no signs of wanting to move up.  Perhaps we can just hang around tomorrow as well and wait for the beginning of April next week.  I will say the longer that we don't simply drop here the more positive that I'll feel.  When markets go down they just move lower.  Hanging around here may produce the double bottom that is potentially out there for most of the major stock indices.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher in overnight trading action.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 344 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We were up over 200 points halfway through the session.  But the market simply started to drop off from there and just kept going.  The small stocks were much weaker and that's a problem for the bulls.  If we don't hold up tomorrow, I believe the market will really start to find trouble.  If the S&P 500 closes below its 200 day moving average, that would spell more problems for obtaining higher prices.  My SPY April calls are still losers.  I did have a good opportunity to cut the loss today but did not take it.  Why tomorrow is so important is because we got the expected bounce already and that may have been it.  If we head lower from here you'll know that the bear market is in place.  GE found some life on speculation somebody is picking up its shares.  And by somebody, I mean a major trader.  GE finished with a gain of over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  GE is now trying to hold the $13 level after failing at $14.  Gold dropped $11 as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I'm thinking about going out to the September calls for GDX.  I'll be waiting until it gets short term oversold before pulling the trigger on this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only 2 days left in the trading week and things could get thin on Thursday as players leave early for a holiday weekend.  The price action here is pretty negative.  Tomorrow is going to be a key as to where we are going.  The VIX rose again today and it's got plenty of room to go either way.  We've got the end of the month on Thursday.  I can't think that there would be too many traders wanting to get long ahead of the extended weekend.  That could prove to be a problem.  But first we have to get through tomorrow.  I probably should have simply exited my call position today.  I am still holding out hope that we'll hold the 200 day moving average and that this is a double bottom forming in the S&P 500.  We'll know pretty soon.  Europe and Asia both rallied overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Quite a bounce today as the Dow climbed 669 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were completely oversold any way you look at it.  So a bounce was due.  We got it and now comes the question of where do we go from here?  The short term technical indicators are still in the oversold zone.  So there's plenty of room for improvement there.  But in sustained downtrends, rallies spring out of nowhere.  Today fits that picture.  If the market is going to hold up here, it will have to continue to the upside.  Maybe not tomorrow or later in the week but overall it would have to move higher in the next week or so.  It is a shortened holiday week with not much in the way of economic data due out.  So we'll probably be driven by the headlines or latest news out of Washington.  My SPY April calls are still in the red but they did recover some of the loss.  How to manage this trade from here will determine the extent of the loss.  I don't think that it will get back to break even.  I could be wrong.  GE was off over 1/8 on good volume.  A market up over 600 points and GE cannot even show a gain.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar continued lower.  This relationship is in sync.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was slightly better than average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see where we go from here.  Will the summation index turn around or will the selling continue?  We've got the end of the trading month coming up on Thursday.  The weekly charts do not look bullish, so today could be all the upside we get.  The technical indicators there are showing lower lows with last weeks debacle.  It is a wait and see matter at this point.  Plenty of time left in the April option cycle.  However my entry on this trade was about as bad as it gets as we dropped about 1000 points after the entry.  I suppose there's a chance that we could head back up towards the short term uptrend line that was recently broken.  But that may just be wishful thinking on my part.  The market always goes where it wants.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights market action and see if we get any upside follow through in the US tomorrow. 

The stock market got clobbered again as the Dow lost 425 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Extremely oversold on some of the short and medium term technical indicators so a bounce cannot be too far off.  I'm getting killed in my SPY April call trade as the market has dropped over 1000 points since I purchased theses yesterday.  I'll sell out at a loss on the bounce.  What if there is no bounce?  Then things will be getting really ugly and fast.  The last two days will seem like nothing.  But I really do not expect that to occur.  However as usual the market will do what it wants.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average and that should provide some near term support.  But like I said, if it doesn't then watch out.  GE lost another 1/4 on average volume.  Gold gained twenty bucks as we got some flight to safety buying there.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/8, while GDX gained 5/8 on good volume.  I'm not sure how long this can last because in my mind the fundamentals for gold are still bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling so-so.  My trading has been so bad lately that I'm beginning to think all that I've learned over the years means nothing.  That's what losing in the game will do to you.  Your confidence will be lost and there is no chance for success like that.  My failure to recognize and act on what the market is telling you is really starting to cost me.  But as I've already stated before, when the technical indicators stop working I'm at a loss.  We are in a zone where normally you would see a multi hundred point rally due to the extremely oversold market condition.  I expect that in the next couple of days.  If we don't see that happen then anything goes to the downside.  The fact that we closed with selling again is not a plus.  But we are at the 200 day moving average for the S&P and also at the lows of early February.  So we should see the bulls try and make a stand here early next week.  That's my best guess at the moment.  I'll be taking a loss in this SPY April call trade but I will try and cut it back if we do see a short term rally.  There is plenty of time left in the April option cycle but I do not want to hold this trade that long.  I do not think that the market is going to have an extended rally from here.  Foreign markets took it on the chin as well with Asia getting the worst of it.  I'll be looking things over this weekend but the game plan has already been established for the beginning of next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow got clobbered today on trade war fears and lost 724 points on a bit better than average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index has now turned lower.  It was a weak start to the session but we managed to hang a round a two to three hundred point loss.  I did buy some SPY April calls.  We collapsed in the final couple of hours and my position has lost almost half of its value.  One of my indicators is overblown to the downside and that only happens when the market falls apart.  It looks like yet another losing trade here.  We'll get some kind of snap back eventually but it probably won't be in time to save this trade.  I'm not sure why my read of the market has been so poor lately.  The VIX spiked up today but the summation index is not near the crash zone.  However the market goes where it wants to.  All the major stock indices got creamed today and some closed right on their lows.  Unless we get some type of rally attempt tomorrow, this trade is doomed.  GE lost 1/2 on average volume.  Perhaps GE not holding the $14 level was a clue but it's always easy to see things in retrospect.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures and the US dollar showed a slight gain.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX was off 1/3 on average volume.  No flight to the gold shares for safety.  Mentally I'm feeling ambivalent.  When the trading indicators that I follow don't work I'm really at a loss of what to do.  Perhaps I should just get out of this trade and wait for a better opportunity down the road.  I really thought that this trade had a chance as like I said before.  We don't get the readings that we're seeing on one of my indicators unless the market is going to collapse.  The market usually doesn't collapse unless the summation index is near the zero line.  The indicator is saying the market is a strong buy.  Yet we fell apart today.  These are the kind of things that I'm struggling with at the moment.  Todays price action does tell me that my original scenario of the overall bull market top being in for the S&P 500 is valid.  We won't be seeing any more new all time highs there this year.  I guess my best advice here is hold on to your seats because it looks like it will be quite a bumpy ride.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some bouncing around after the Fed today and the Dow closed with a loss of 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We finished well off of the highs today.  The Fed notched up rates as expected.  There weren't any surprises.  It looks like I may try the SPY April calls tomorrow if we see some early weakness.  I'll have to go over things again tonight but I think this idea has some merit in the short term.  The option premiums are expensive so the timing in and out will have to be pretty good.  I'll ponder this some more tonight.  GE was up 1/4 on what passes for average volume here these days.  Stuck in a down trend and I'm looking at the SPY right now.  Any trades in GE will have to wait.  Gold gained over $20 on the futures as the US dollar got whacked.  A rise in interest rates and gold rises while the dollar falls?  That is pretty much counter intuitive.  It is no wonder why trading these markets is the toughest game in the world.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX climbed 5/8.  Volume was heavy.  what does the market know that we don't?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm looking to attempt my next trade tomorrow if all goes according to plan.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and I'm expecting them to turn back up here.  The summation index is moving sideways and that could continue and this trade could still work.  Unless we see a collapse like we had on Monday, I'll probably be trying this trade.  I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to it but I will be exiting rather quickly if it doesn't work.  Another problem with plenty of time to go in the option cycle is that the premiums don't move as much with the underlying index.  What I mean by that is the SPY could have a decent move and the options won't move as much accordingly.  However if my timing is right on this idea, there will still be money to be made.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

A bit of some upside today and that was expected as the Dow rose 116 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  It was a weak bounce and that does not inspire a lot of confidence.  That said I am looking at the SPY April calls now if the market cooperates with the scenario that I have in mind.  If we see weakness into Thursday, I'm willing to attempt a trade there on the call side for the short term.  We're already short term oversold here even with todays feeble rally.  But the market would have to trend lower from here to try this idea out.  We'll have to see the reaction to the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  GE was off 3/8 on average volume and has broken through the $14 level.  I won't be trying any trades here at the moment.  Gold was off $7 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No rush to trade here but if things line up I do believe that it will be worth a short term shot.  One of the problems here is that the April option cycle has an extra week in it and that causes the premiums to be inflated.  But if the time is going to be right for this idea, I'll have to pay up in order to take the chance.  Tomorrow should be a wait and see morning on the Fed in the afternoon.  I have no idea what will happen but it is a given that short term rates will be going up a notch.  That is already in the market in my opinion so I suppose we'll have to see what the Fed head has to say afterwards and how the market responds.  My hope is that it's a non-event and we roll into Thursday.  The market rarely cooperates.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

An interesting start to the week as the Dow fell 335 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back down but for now I'll call it sideways.  The small stocks led the way down with the indices that made new all time highs now breaking their up trend lines that began in early February.  Perhaps the market is just nervous ahead of the Fed but it looked like technology led the way down.  We are short term oversold here and some kind of bounce should materialize.  GE was off 1/4 on lighter volume.  We'll see if the $14 level can hold things in here for GE again.  Gold gained about $5 as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  We'll see if we get some real movement here after the Fed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up over 20 today and we'll see if that is a sign of things to come.  Not a lot of economic data out this week so It's all about the Fed.  A rise in rates is expected so I don't expect any surprises there.  But you never know.  Todays market action was not anticipated by me so perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  We're getting the usual rants out of Washington that the market ignores.  There was some negative Facebook headlines but nothing that appeared too serious.  We did come up off of the lows for the session but it was still an ugly start to the trading week.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  There is a short term buy signal out there but since we just rolled into the April option cycle, the premiums are too high to take a position in my opinion.  So I'll be watching and waiting for now.  We'll let the Fed pass and go from there.  There is no hurry to put on a trade.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines and developments heading into Tuesday. 

Another kind of mixed bag as the Dow gained 72 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall indexes were weaker than the Dow though.  The summation index has started to trend sideways.  We're basically waiting on the Fed here and that won't happen until Wednesday of next week.  Getting short term oversold on one of my indicators.  I'm in a wait and see mode as we're rolling into the April option cycle.  GE lost a nickel and volume was pretty good.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll wait on the Fed and go from there.  The April time period can sometimes be pretty slow.  It can be a time of little movement and conviction.  I'm not sure the reason but perhaps tax season is the cause.  This doesn't happen every year but the possibility is out there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend and I'll try to figure something out.  The move to new highs in some of the small stock indices has yet to be confirmed by the RSI.  I'll be keeping an eye out on that.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower.  The most watched index gained 115 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This might turn the summation index into a sideways configuration.  Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower.  No reasons for todays market movement as it appears we are simply drifting into option expiration tomorrow.  No trades in mind for now.  GE was up a dime and the volume was lighter than we've seen lately.  Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar rose.  The XAU fell a point while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to say about todays price action.  The technical picture remains the same with the short term indicators having just rolled over.  Getting to short term oversold on one of my indicators though.  The VIX has only slightly ticked up here with this weeks lower prices so far.  I suppose we'll get through expiration tomorrow and then wait on the Fed next Wednesday.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 248 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  Retail sales did come up light today.  However I don't think this decline is the beginning of a rout to the downside.  The small stocks remain relatively stronger and that is a plus.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over though.  We aren't seeing the usual expiration week positive bias.  We're just going to have to wait and see where things go for the rest of the week.  GE was off over 1/8 but the volume was lighter.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved again on very light volume.  No interest in the gold shares either way here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm at a loss for trading ideas here as I don't have any valid signals at the moment.  I'm also rethinking my main thesis that the rally from 2009 is over.  I was a firm believer in that thesis until the last trade and the small stocks making new all time highs.  I'm just going to let things play out for the rest of the week here and roll into the April option cycle.  With only 2 days left here in the March cycle, sitting on the sidelines appears to be the best choice for me.  Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of the DAX.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower today as the Dow shed 171 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Some weakness was expected as we were short term overbought on some of the technical indicators.  Whether or not this turns into some thing else remains to be seen.  The overall market was weak along with the Dow this time around.  However the VIX didn't move that much and volume was weak.  The inflation data was in line with expectations.  In political news, the US secretary of state was fired.  Perhaps that led to some market uncertainty.  But we'll stick with the technicals and look for perhaps some more selling this week.  I have no SPY trades in mind at the moment.  GE had its rally cut short and dropped 1/3 today on heavy volume.  It looks like any trades done here need to be quick in nature.  Take profits when you get them.  Perhaps if we get back down to $14 I'll try the April calls here.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was just a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX barely budged on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three days left in the March option cycle and it will be interesting to see where we go from here.  The daily candlestick charts look bearish for the major stock indices.  However we just saw how the three black crows candlestick pattern did not work out for the SPY put trade.  That doesn't mean that you just throw out the candlesticks though.  There's also the potential negative daily RSI divergence on the small stocks to consider.  Another couple of days like today and that signal will be valid.  Hasn't happened yet.  I'm in a wait and see mode for now.  I won't be forcing any trade here and I'll simply have to patiently wait for the next perceived signal.  Last night Asia was mixed and Europe lower in trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index closed 157 points lower on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks showing gains.  As long as that condition persists the trend shall remain up.  The summation index is moving higher as well.  No trades for me here as there are only 4 days left in the March option cycle.  I do expect some weakness at some point this week because we are short term overbought on one of my indicators and have been for a couple of days.  There is some economic data out this week that could affect the market such as the CPI and retail sales.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  GE has a seven day rally going for it at the moment.  Gold finished little changed and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on about average volume.  I still think that the fundamentals here for gold are bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The weekend has passed and I had plenty of time to forget about the losing trade on Friday.  The thing about this game is that you've just got to keep moving on.  Win or lose the game keeps going forward.  Although I expect some weakness this week I also would not be surprised if we close out higher as well.  The internals still seem to favor higher prices for now.  Next week could be different as we'll have the Fed to deal with.  Bur for now my overall point of view is that higher prices are coming and perhaps some more new all time highs for some of the major stock indices.  There is a potential negative RSI divergence in a couple of the small stock indices including the NASDAQ.  But whether that actually means anything remains to be seen.  Mt take on things lately has been wrong.  Hence a trip to the sidelines is where I am.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of the FTSE.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market took off higher from the start as the Dow roared ahead by 440 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  My SPY March put trade was a loser by 75%.  The employment number didn't matter as the market broke through to new all time highs on some of the small stock indices.  The S&P 500 broke through the short term down trend line, following what the small stocks had already done.  The three black crows candlestick pattern did not work out.  My indicator that was short term overbought simply stayed that way.  It was just another losing trade that has become all too common here for me lately.  It's back to the drawing board for me.  GE was up 3/8 on OK volume and appears to be poised to head higher from here.  In retrospect the March call idea there would have worked.  Gold finished up a couple bucks while the US dollar ended little changed.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  The strong jobs number did nothing much to gold and the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated at yet another losing trade.  Trading with just a week or so left in the option cycle leaves no room for error.  I'm better trading near the beginning of the option cycle months.  Perhaps this time I'll keep that in mind.  The market wants to go higher here and I did have that thought at some point this week.  Didn't pay attention though.  It now looks like my whole underlying theory of the final market top being put in for the bull market is wrong.  It appears that we have higher to go for the S&P 500.  The small stocks continue to be in the lead and that can't be ignored.  Keep an eye on them for the clues since they have been the leaders either way for quite a while.  An upwards summation index is another clue as to the overall direction.  The market has a mind of its own as usual.  While a strong employment report might have been a concern for higher rates, the market chose to focus on the fact that the economy is in good shape.  It is an interesting game and a difficult one at the same time.  I made yet another mistake and mistakes in this game cost you.  I can only go back and reassess what I did wrong and go from there.  I will take a long look at the charts this weekend but it's safe to say that I'll be on the sidelines until my confidence returns.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the DAX.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We bounced around for most of the day, with a final whipsaw back and forth the in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 93 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  I placed an order for the SPY March puts early, changed it and then changed it back again.  I finally decided that if I could get it at the price that I wanted, I would give it a try.  The order was finally filled in the last half hour gyration.  It is showing a small loss.  I am certainly not sure this is the right move but if the three black crows candlestick pattern is legitimate, this trade will work.  We still haven't made it up to the 2750 level on the S&P 500 but we're getting close.  Of course we could simply blast through there tomorrow on the jobs report.  That would doom this trade.  The VIX is at the moment of truth as well.  It did make it down to the 15 level today and closed right at the 50 day moving average.  So volatility will either pick up here or that period is over for now.  Lots of questions and we should get the answers rather soon.  As in tomorrow.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  So the next trade is on and I do think that things could still go one way or the other.  But we did get a light volume drift higher this week and that was something I was looking for.  As long as we don't get a huge rally on good volume tomorrow, I'm inclined to hold this trade into next week.  We are short term overbought on one of my indicators but could always just stay that way.  That is how things went last year but this is 2018.  I got the price I was looking for on the SPY puts, now it is a matter of time and where the market goes.  I have no idea what will be reported tomorrow but as usual the only thing that matters is the market reaction to it.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trading.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and await the employment report tomorrow.

We had a gap lower at the open and the Dow was off around 350 points during the session.  We did stage a comeback though and the Dow finished with a loss of 82 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the plus.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher here.  I wanted to chase the move lower this morning but didn't.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts but canceled it later on.  I might try again tomorrow but this trade would be highly risky.  There's only 7 days left in the March option cycle and we have the jobs report on Friday.  The market tried to sell off today and failed.  The short term technical indicators for the major big cap indices are mid-range.  So we could go either way but things look like they are leaning towards a break out to the upside.  The only caveats being the three black crows candlestick pattern that remains out there along with the short term down trend line in the S&P 500.  That comes in at the 2750 level.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  GE made a comeback from its lows, following the overall market.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a little higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  So which way we will go here?  I'm pretty sure we'll know by Friday.  The market is kind of shrugging off a lot of bad political news here.  That is generally bullish.  The small stocks are still showing good relative strength and that is a positive.  The VIX is heading back to its 50 day moving average.  A move lower through there would probably send us off into full rally mode.  I'm still considering the SPY March puts though.  I can bail out Friday morning if they turn out to be the wrong move.  I am still a believer in the three black crows pattern for now.  If we somehow make it to the 2750 level in the S&P tomorrow, I'll try the puts.  I may try them anyway.  Waiting for Friday will probably be too late if they are going to work.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

We bounced around today and the Dow managed a gain of 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Once again the overall market was much stronger that the Dow.  The small stocks are showing good relative strength and that is usually bullish.  The RUT has broken through its short term down trend line.  The market looks like it is poised to go higher.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts and have left it open overnight.  But this may not be the right move.  I am counting on the three black crows candlestick pattern on the daily charts here to be valid.  Not all patterns play out as they're supposed to.  This may be the case here.  The market certainly has a right to go where it wants.  I'll consider canceling this trade tonight.  GE was up almost 1/4 on lighter volume.  Maybe GE has finally reached its bottom and that would help with the bullish cause for the overall market.  Gold found a bid and gained $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is continuing to move lower and heading back to its 50 day moving average.  That would be a logical spot to try the S&P 500 puts again as well.  But we aren't there yet.  8 days to go in the March option cycle, so the risk in a trade now is elevated with each passing day.  If we continue to drift ahead of Friday, I'll probably try the SPY March calls.  Ideally we'd levitate higher on light volume into the close on Thursday and that would be the time to take a chance on the puts.  However I must caution that the some of the small stock indices have triangle patterns on their daily charts.  The triangles have a flat top and imply a breakout to the upside very soon.  So we've got conflicting signals on some of the charts patterns.  I'll simply continue to monitor what's going on and try and make the correct decision going forward.  Asia had good overnight gains but Europe not so much.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We had a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It's a good start to the week for the most watched index as it gained 336 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  I did place an order for the SPY March calls this morning but it wasn't filled.  My guess now is that it is probably too late for them.  But we'll see.  The next question to be answered is what happens if and when we get to the down trend line in the S&P 500 at around 2750.  We had a nice move today and we'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  GE rose almost 1/3 on good volume.  I canceled my open order for the March calls here.  It looks like that idea would have worked out but the option premiums did not hit my target buy price.  We'll see how things play out into the expiration.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume.  Not much interest in the gold shares here and the fundamentals remain negative in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A good start to the week but there's a long way to go as we've got the employment report coming up on Friday.  OK, this time I'm sure the numbers will be out on Friday.  My thinking at this time is that if we get to the 2750 level on the SPX, I'll give the March puts a try.  If we simply blast through that level and the small stocks make new all time highs then my thinking here is wrong.  If we meander around for the rest of the week, I'll feel better about trying this idea.  Getting the calls on weakness this morning was the right move, so I feel as though I'm getting a handle on what's going on with the market.  One of my beliefs at the moment is that we saw a bearish pattern develop on the S&P last week.  Three black crows occurred on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P.  That implies lower prices going forward, today not withstanding.  If that pattern is correct, we will see the market turn back down at some point in the near future.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow. 

The Dow had another losing session as it shed 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  That tells you that the overall market was stronger than the Dow and much so.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  I saw nothing about the employment report so I guess it's coming out next Friday.  My mistake.  It appears the market is wary of a trade war with the ramblings of Trump.  We'll see.  I'm going to be looking at getting some SPY March calls on Monday if there's any weakness.  Today may have been the day to purchase them for a short term trade.  But I wanted to let this day pass to reassess things over the weekend.  I at least stuck to that plan.  GE rose ten cents on good volume.  I've left in the open order here for the March calls but again, I'll rethink this idea over the weekend as well.  Gold got an $18 bump up today as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  No love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a nice recovery in the overall market today with the small stocks leading the way again.  That tells me that perhaps the decline has run its course.  The key will probably be when we get to the short term down trend line in the S&P 500 at around 2760.  We've formed a wedge or triangle here and around that level will be the moment of truth.  That's how I see things at the moment.  Subject to change with further review over the weekend.  With the small stocks showing good relative strength, that normally means that they are the leaders one way or the other.  But again I'm going to have to take a step back and look things over.  I'll be checking the charts in the next two days as usual to try and come up with a plan for next week.  Two weeks to go in the March option cycle, so there's time to get some kind of trade going.  Europe and Asia closed lower to finish out the week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another downer for stocks as the Dow lost 420 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 400 market would suggest.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term up trend line has been broken and the technical indicators have rolled over.  That's over 1000 points in three days for the Dow and volatility has returned.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm not expecting any kind of huge drop.  That said, we are moving closer to the zero line in the summation index.  That is the line in the sand for some type of crash event.  We aren't there yet but even getting close is a worry.  I guess the market doesn't like the new Fed chairman but we all know that it isn't that easy.  GE lost nine cents for a new closing low for the year.  Volume remains heavy here.  I still have the open order out there for the March calls here.  This may not be the best idea but I'm willing to give it a try.  Gold was flat on the session as it came up off of the lows.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares are at their recent lows and need to hang in here or they will be going a lot lower in my view.  Interest rates have been dropping this week but it hasn't helped the market so far.  Once again, I'm not sure what is going on here.  One of the things that worries me is that the technical indicators still have plenty of room to fall.  So some of my thinking is that if we get a rally out of nowhere, that could be the time to try the SPY March puts again.  Just a thought for now.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow go by and reassess things over the weekend.  The jobs number may not mean anything because it seems that the market has a mind of its own right now.  It knows things that we don't.  Volume is increasing with each day lower so far.  But the small stocks have had better relative strength in this weeks decline.  That usually means that we aren't on the verge of a major breakdown.  Perhaps this is the retest of the lows from early February.  That's just a guess as usual.  Like I said, I think I'll watch what happens tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was mostly lower with the exception of China and Hong Kong.  Europe was down.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow lost 380 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now trying to turn back down.  No news to account for the drop today.  Perhaps the market is wary of tomorrows words from the new Fed chief Powell.  However now technically the S&P 500 has broken the short term trend line form the beginning of the month and lower prices can be expected.  We closed near the lows for the session and I am assuming that it is too late to get the SPY March puts again.  At this point I'll have to wait for the VIX to get back to the 15 level to attempt any SPY puts.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume remains pretty good.  I did place an order for the GE March calls but we'll have to see some more weakness for it to get filled.  I'm not exactly sure this is the best idea here going forward but there isn't a lot of money involved.  I may even cancel this trade tomorrow if things really begin to unravel in the overall market.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  I'm still of the belief that the fundamentals for the gold shares aren't positive at this time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well the former SPY March puts that I sold for a loss last week are now back in the black.  Of course looking back will usually do you no good in this game.  Where we go from here is what counts.  Obviously it looks like we're going lower as the up trend line has been broken.  Could this be a retest of the lows set in the beginning of February?  Perhaps.  The only thing that I can say for sure is that volatility has picked up.  We will not be seeing a repeat of the market that just keeps going up and remains overbought for weeks on end.  With the losses of the past two sessions I suppose we can wait for a short term oversold signal if we continue lower.  That would be an opportunity to try the SPY March calls at some point before the expiration.  But we're a long way from that.  Staying nimble here is the best advice and taking profits when you get them isn't a bad idea either.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fedspeak tomorrow.      

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 299 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The VIX almost made it to 15 and the market turned around.  That is the level to watch for on the VIX.  It looks like when we get down there the market will turn.  We'll have to wait for it to head back there.  One day doesn't make a trend.  What I'd like to see is another run back to 15 on the VIX with a light volume rally from here.  But the market rarely cooperates.  The new Fed chief spoke today and the market didn't like what it heard.  We were getting short term overbought on some indicators so a drop here isn't a big surprise.  It would be a surprise if it turns into something more.  GE lost what it gained yesterday and finished well off of the highs.  It was the most actively traded on the big board.  Yesterday there was a hammer and today there's a shooting star.  Basically GE is trying to make up its mind here.  I'll still maybe try the calls if we head back to $14.  Gold got hit on the Fedspeak and lost $14.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've now snapped back to the recent breakout on the S&P 500.  If we hold here we should start moving back up.  If not the short term up trend line from the rally that began in the beginning of the month could get violated.  We do have bearish candlesticks on the daily charts after todays price action on the major stock indices and we closed near the lows of the day.  So we are at an important near term point for the markets.  Just yesterday it appeared that all systems were on go and we were simply going to go back and test the all time highs.  That may still happen.  QQQ was on the verge.  We'll need to keep a close eye on what goes on for the rest of the week.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow.  The Fed will speak again on Thursday.  The jobs numbers will be out on Friday.  There are plenty of potential market movers.  Perhaps today was the time to try the SPY March puts again.  Time will tell on that.  For now I'm going to have to wait and see how things go ahead of the employment report.  Perhaps the VIX can return to the 15 level relatively soon.  That is more wishful thinking than anything else.  But at least we have something to go on.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how we finish out the month tomorrow.  

The market continues to advance as the Dow soared 399 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  No fear in the market now as the bulls have taken over.  The VIX is heading back to its 50 day moving average at around 15.  In my mind that is a key level and I'll be watching to what happens when we get there.  It may be a spot to try the SPY March puts again.  But for now it looks like we are going to go back to the old highs of a month ago.  It's early but we could be building a double top in the major stock averages.  However we'll have to wait and see on that.  GE had quite a turnaround after getting below $14 today.  It finished with a gain of over 1/8 on pretty heavy volume.  Perhaps $14 is the line in the sand for the decline.  If we wander back down there, the March calls could be the next trade.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I think that the fundamentals do not favor gold at the moment.  But there is a potential short term double bottom on the daily charts for the gold share indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm over last weeks loss and trying to figure out where we go from here.  It appears that the rally is back on and I don't want to argue with that.  But I don't think that we will simply head straight on higher again as we did for most of January.  I would be surprised if we did.  If we continue higher into Thursday, then I may try the SPY March puts again because we will be short term overbought.  However that hasn't happened yet and there is plenty of time left to trade this week.  Some of the short term technical indicators are getting overbought.  At this point I'm going to simply wait and see where the market takes us before Fridays employment report.  If things line up for the SPY put trade I'll take it.  If not I'll stay on the sidelines until I see something else.  GE is still on the radar for the March calls but today could have been the day to initiate that idea.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia rallied in the overnight session.  We'll see how the market reacts to the new Fed chiefs remarks tomorrow.

The market powered higher today as the Dow gained 347 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned around and is moving higher.  My idea of a decline here only lasted a couple of days as the market was digesting its gains and not making a short term top.  I did manage to bring myself to sell the SPY March puts that I had for a 20% loss.  They did show a 10% gain at one point during the trading session but as usual I hung around hoping for a turnaround.  The market proved me wrong and I got out.  The light volume today is a concern for the bulls but I did not want to hang around.  It appears that my overall prognosis that the top is in could be wrong at this point as well.  The small stocks continue to act well and it looks like we're going back to test the all time highs.  GE didn't participate as usual and was off a penny.  Volume was light for lately.  I'm still considering the GE March calls but GE is such a slow moving stock that perhaps forgetting this idea all together is the best plan.  However the SPY moves very fast and it seems like that I'm really not up for that task at the moment for some reason.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade in the books.  I'm not sure how I feel about that.  I was able to at least get out with a relatively small loss but I had plenty of chances to eek out a small gain.  But my trading tactics were lousy.  More than once today my mind was saying just get out and I didn't.  I kept waiting for a roll over to the downside that just didn't happen.  The market didn't do as I expected, as my work suggested a down session today and we got more than just the opposite.  I'm beginning to thank that my idea of where we are going here is wrong.  If we get follow through buying on Monday, then I think that I'll have to reevaluate what I'm thinking.  We did close on the highs of the session and that's bullish.  There's still plenty of time in the March option cycle to attempt another trade.  But will I be up to the task?  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed with muted moves last night.  I'll try and put todays loss behind me and start the week off on a fresh note.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Kind of a mixed bag today but the Dow did gain 164 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ slightly lower.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I should probably get rid of my SPY March puts tomorrow.  They are still showing a profit for now.  Many of the short term technical indicators are still mid-range, so we could go either way.  The Dow was up over 300 points during the session but once again could not hold on to the bulk of its gains.  We are stalling at the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock indices.  My work says tomorrow should be a negative day but for some reason I'm not believing it.  GE was up 1/8 but finished well off of its highs.  Volume was good again.  Plenty of volume for GE but no upside.  Gold had a slight gain and the dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It really feels like the market is trying to make up its mind here on which way to go.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 shows some spinning tops along the 50 day moving average.  It looks bearish.  However you could also make the case that we are in a flag formation and digesting the strong move higher that began a couple of weeks ago.  With mid-range technical indicators, a pause at the 50 day and the charts looking as they do you can see how the trading here is going to be tough.  I should probably just get out of what I own and move on to next week.  The volatility and decent entry are the only things keeping this trade profitable at the moment.  What I don't want to do is project the extreme volatility from two weeks ago on to this trade.  The odds are that we won't see that again for a while.  So maybe taking whatever I can get out of this and moving on is the best case scenario.  I'll know more on the open tomorrow.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 167 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is starting to trend sideways.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and the small stocks had a lesser relative decline.  We were in positive territory for most of the session.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts and it somehow got filled near the highs for the session.  They are already showing a profit.  Depending on how things go in the next couple of days will determine how long I hold on to this position.  I should be out by the close on Friday or sometime on Monday at the latest.  I don't think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside but I certainly don't know.  Weakness was to be expected this week and we are certainly seeing that's the case so far.  GE fell another 1/4 on heavier volume.  The March calls keep getting cheaper here and that looks like it could be my next trade after the SPY puts.  Gold was off $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  An interesting session as we did open higher and close lower for a one day reversal.  The market was humming along and had a brief spike higher after the Fed minutes.  But things pretty much fell apart in the final hour and a half.  Technically the short term indicators are mid-range, so we could go either way here.  I am looking for further weakness though and it's not just because I own the puts.  My work says that we should see some more selling before the end of the week.  We'll see if that actually comes to pass.  The timing on the entry here looks to be pretty good.  Now all that matters is the exit.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow pass regardless of the price movement and wait to sell the puts on Friday or Monday.  That is the game plan at the moment.  Subject to change as always depending on market conditions.  I think that this trade has a chance to be a winner but it is a matter of managing it properly from here.  Asia was generally higher in last nights trade but a lot of markets were closed.  Europe was mixed.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Lower today and that was to be expected as the Dow fell 254 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This may stall the summation index.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We were short term overbought, so some selling should and did come in.  It may not be the beginning of anything big to the downside though, with the small stocks acting relatively well.  If we can hold up here until Thursday, I'll be inclined to give the SPY March puts a try.  If we simply go lower from here, that trade will be nullified.  The premiums on the SPY options remain high.  However weakness is expected this week and this may simply be the beginning.  GE lost 1/3 and the volume was good.  The March calls are still in play here for me if I decide to take on that trade.  Overall weakness in the market should take GE with it.  That is happening as of today.  I'm not looking for some kind of huge rally for GE but it the entry timing is good there will be opportunity for profit.  Gold fell $16 on the futures as the US dollar continues to rise.  This is the normal relationship between those two.  The XAU dropped about 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I had a long weekend to digest what's going on and came up with getting the SPY March puts if the market cooperates or the GE March calls if we drop all week.  I'm really hoping that the market holds up here for me in the next two sessions because that is a trade that would work rather quickly.  The SPY moves faster but that can work to your advantage as well.  The only drawback at this point is the expensive option premiums.  The GE trade would have to be held for a longer period of time and may simply turn into a sideways affair.  As always there are pluses and minuses to every idea.  We'll see if we get downside follow through tomorrow and try to figure out things from there.  Asia was lower last night, with China on a holiday.  Europe was higher.  We'll keep an eye on tonights market action.    

The day was mostly positive as the Dow rose 19 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has turned back up.  The NASDAQ was lower though.  I sold my SPY February puts for an 85% loss.  This was a dumb trade as with less than two days to go when I entered it required that things practically had to go perfect for it to work.  That never happens in the trading game.  I don't know what I was thinking because before the trade was executed, I thought numerous times to just cancel the order.  But I didn't and I paid the price.  I do think that next week will have some weakness and I can almost guarantee it.  We're short term overbought.  The premiums on the SPY March calls are still pretty high since we are just rolling into that months options.  I'm not saying that we are going to see another collapse but I do think that we'll be lower in the coming days.  GE gained 20 cents and the short term indicators here have turned up.  I am still considering the March calls here.  If we do see weakness in the overall market it will probably take GE with it.  That would be the time to try this idea.  Gold lost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm hoping that I won't lose any confidence after the latest losing trade.  Actually both trades that I've attempted so far this year haven't been the greatest ideas in the world.  The fact that one of them was a winner was probably more luck than actual good tactics.  The battle for me is always with myself in this game.  The market is there for the taking if you are good enough.  My view here is that we'll be heading lower at some point next week.  Whether or not we go back and test the lows remains to be seen.  I do not think that we will be heading back up to new all time highs.  I'm hearing in the media that this was a normal 10% correction and that the bull market remains in place.  It's possible that could be the case.  No major up trend lines have been violated.  However I'm more of the view that a top is being put in place and the long bull market is over.  I could be wrong.  Just because that is my view doesn't mean that we go straight down from here.  And it doesn't mean that trying the calls is out of the question either.  The market goes where it wants.  After seeing the market go straight up, we saw it go straight down.  Going out from here isn't going to have the same dynamic that we just witnessed.  I'm going to try and take the signals as they come and hopefully not engage in the dumb action that I just did over the past couple of days.  I should have sat it out and remained patient.  But I'm going to try and not dwell on that mistake over the weekend.  I'll need to find the next trade.  Europe and Asia were again positive overnight.  It's a long weekend in the US.  Plenty of time to figure out what to do going forward.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market continues to climb higher as the Dow gained 306 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  We're now short term overbought but that condition can last for a while as we saw before the recent decline.  I did buy some SPY February puts today and they are showing a loss.  With only one day left for this trade it is already in the cut the loss stage.  My only hope would be a sharp decline on the open and that really isn't expected.  I should have let this trade simply pass because the timing had to spot on and there isn't any time for this trade to work.  Perhaps I was bored or just greedy or perhaps feeling invincible after making money on the previous trade.  I had an open order and thought about canceling it throughout the session.  But then is got filled and now I'm stuck with it.  Not good trading tactics here today.  GE was off a nickel on lighter volume.  I'm still considering the March calls here.  Gold was off a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed but did come off of their lows for the session.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired.  A long weekend is coming up in the US as Monday is a holiday.  It looks like I'll have all that time to stew over a stupid trade.  I do expect some near term weakness but it probably won't come in time to save me.  I also believe that weakness can be bought next week for a SPY March call trade but I don't think that we'll be going to new all time highs again soon.  I could be wrong.  We do have option expiration tomorrow, so anything can happen.  But like I said, unless there is a gap down at the open, my trade is dead.  There is nobody to blame but myself.  The economic data came in mixed today and it really wasn't a factor.  The market is giving the impression that the selling is now over and it's full speed ahead again.  We'll see about that.  At this point all that I can do is wait to see what happens at the open tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 253 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  Is the decline over?  At least it is for now.  I would like to try the SPY February puts on any strength tomorrow but with only two days to go in the option cycle the risk is way too high.  But getting the puts when we hit the 50 day moving average at about 271 would be the play.  I do think that last Fridays lows need to be tested but I certainly don't know when.  The summation index is heading near the zero line and that would imply that the market is about to fall apart.  However I do think that we will hold up here for now.  Perhaps if we see some more weakness before the end of the month, we'll get a set up for the SPY March calls.  That is the next idea unless I somehow try the SPY February puts.  Almost getting to short term overbought for the SPY.  GE was up about 1/4 on good volume.  Perhaps today was the day for the March calls but if we roll back down there will be a better opportunity in my mind.  And there's still the fact that GE is a slow mover.  But I do think that the idea has a chance to work.  Gold rallied today on what was perceived as a strong inflation number.  The precious metal futures added over $20 as the US dollar got whacked.  The XAU climbed 4 1/4, while GDX gained a full point.  Volume was good.  We now have a bottom in the gold shares.  The 200 day moving average was support for the gold shares indices.  It appears weakness can be bought there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My choices here are to try a SPY very short term put trade or wait for the SPY March calls on any weakness in the coming days.  Plus the GE March calls if we see some pullback there in the near future.  So there are some ideas for profit out there.  The VIX is coming back down and there appears to be room to move lower there.  This implies a longer term move back up in my view but I could be wrong.  Regardless, I do think that a long term top is in.  I'll consider whether to try the short term trade overnight.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of Japan.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Still trying to slug our way higher here as the Dow rose 39 points on lighter than lately volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  Running out of time for another SPY trade in the February option cycle.  I'm looking at the puts here on a very short term basis.  But the prudent move would be no move at all here because time is not on your side.  The short term technical indicators have started to move up here for the SPY.  I think that I'm going to wait for an actual signal though.  We don't have one yet.  We'll get inflation data tomorrow but one number isn't a trend.  However there is a chance the market will be fixated on it.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains pretty good.  I would like to try the March calls here and now is as good a time as any.  But for some reason I'm holding off.  I think that the overall market will head lower in the coming days and take GE with it.  Then I might try the March calls here if the premiums get low enough for me.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three days in a row higher for the overall market and we haven't seen that for a couple of weeks.  But we'll have to get through expiration week before a long holiday weekend.  I'll expect a rollover here at some point before the end of the week.  I'll also be looking at a test of the recent lows to set up the March calls.  That is potentially my next SPY trade as well.  There won't be any rush to do anything because there really isn't a decent signal one way or the other just yet.  So I think that patience will be your friend here.  Asia was mostly higher with the exception of NIKK.  Europe was down.  We'll keep an eye on the developments overnight.

Continuing higher to begin the week as the Dow climbed 410 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The decline is over for now as far as I'm concerned.  We had a five wave move down and we will now form a bottom or simply continue higher from here.  The short term technical indicators for the SPY have turned up.  I'll be looking for a retest of the lows of last week at some point.  That would be the ideal situation.  If they hold then calls are to be purchased.  If they don't, then we'll be going a lot lower rather quickly.  I do not expect that to happen.  Only 4 days to go in the February option cycle.  I do not think that I'll be trying a trade with the SPY here but you never know.  I'll be looking at the calls unless we are up for the next 3 days.  I then may try the puts for expiration.  But the short term trades are full of risk.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  I am looking at the March calls here.  The only problem for me is that GE is a slow moving equity.  It could simply trend sideways for the next five weeks.  However if the options get cheap enough, I may attempt a trade.  Gold was up $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was very heavy.  Perhaps we'll put in a bottom here on the gold shares.  They are oversold and have had a nice 2 day pattern on the daily candlestick chart.  There's a potential hammer bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got some follow through to Friday gains and I think the selling is washed up for now.  I could be wrong.  It is expiration week in front of a holiday weekend.  The VIX indicators are mid-range but trending lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to recover as well.  I don't really have a short term signal here yet but my gut wants to go with the long side for the immediate future and into March.  I think that we've raised enough fear to keep people guessing.  There won't be any straight up moves form here in my opinion.  Waiting for the right opportunity will be my challenge.  We'll keep an eye on things.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow held up today for a change and rose 330 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Did we hit bottom today?  Could be for the short term in my mind.  But this is a crazy time in the markets and we do have option expiration week coming up.  It was another 1000 point range day for the Dow and we certainly aren't used to that.  5 days left in the February option cycle and the premiums remain very elevated.  The risk is also because if your timing isn't spot on here there won't be enough time to recover.  I'm going to have to look things over this weekend and make a decision as to what to do.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Perhaps I could go out to the March calls here.  That would at least give the trade some time to work.  I'll look at it over the next couple of days.  Gold and the US dollar were both little changed.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was very heavy here.  The gold shares have been falling for three straight weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that we have a positive divergence for the short term with the McClellan oscillator.  We've hit lower prices with a higher oscillator reading this week.  It also looks like we have potential double bottoms on some of the short term technical indicators for the SPY.  Along with another potential completion of an A-B-C-D-E wave down on a very short term basis.  That's what it looks like to me here.  The February SPY calls are very pricey though, with the abnormal volatility that we've seen this week.  I am going to have to look things over carefully this weekend and determine if a trade is worth it.  I also should keep in mind that I usually don't perform well with the short term trades.  Going out to March with GE may be the better idea but I'll decide that over the weekend.  It was quite a week in the markets and there were plenty of opportunities for profit.  Next week should prove the same.  Asia and Europe were both lower but Europe not as much.  There will be plenty to ponder over the next two days.  But right now it's Friday afternoon and time for a much needed break.