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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Kind of a mixed bag today but the Dow did gain 164 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ slightly lower.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I should probably get rid of my SPY March puts tomorrow.  They are still showing a profit for now.  Many of the short term technical indicators are still mid-range, so we could go either way.  The Dow was up over 300 points during the session but once again could not hold on to the bulk of its gains.  We are stalling at the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock indices.  My work says tomorrow should be a negative day but for some reason I'm not believing it.  GE was up 1/8 but finished well off of its highs.  Volume was good again.  Plenty of volume for GE but no upside.  Gold had a slight gain and the dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It really feels like the market is trying to make up its mind here on which way to go.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 shows some spinning tops along the 50 day moving average.  It looks bearish.  However you could also make the case that we are in a flag formation and digesting the strong move higher that began a couple of weeks ago.  With mid-range technical indicators, a pause at the 50 day and the charts looking as they do you can see how the trading here is going to be tough.  I should probably just get out of what I own and move on to next week.  The volatility and decent entry are the only things keeping this trade profitable at the moment.  What I don't want to do is project the extreme volatility from two weeks ago on to this trade.  The odds are that we won't see that again for a while.  So maybe taking whatever I can get out of this and moving on is the best case scenario.  I'll know more on the open tomorrow.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.

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