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Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Just another crazy day on Wall Street as the Dow got the bounce we were looking for and rose 567 points on heavier volume than yesterday.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'd like to see some follow through tomorrow but in this environment you take what you can get.  We were down over 500 points early and the days range was over 1000 points again.  The volatility here has gone off the charts.  My SPY February calls were all over the place.  They showed a profit at one point early.  Then they were at an over 50% loss.  They once again came back and I got out with a better than 50% profit.  However the market kept going and it looks like holding on until tomorrow would have been a better idea.  But with the way things are going now, I'll take getting out today.  This trade was going to be a big loser.  I'm not sure what the next trade will be but I can tell you this.  You've got to be quick on the execution because the pricing is looking pretty squirrelly during the trading session.  The decline may be done for now but that doesn't mean that we won't go back to retest todays low.  I'll have to pour over things tonight to develop the next idea.  I don't think that we are going to be going straight back up.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume is still very heavy.  Gold lost $10 on the futures, while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU lost a point and GDX dropped almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  US interest rates came down today but the dollar didn't move.  The fundamentals for gold here are bearish in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit exhausted due to the increased volatility.  There are opportunities to be sure.  On an intra-day basis no less.  But the risk is extremely high and you've got to be nimble and not fall in love with your trades.  I'd like to try something else before the expiration but I'm not exactly sure what to do right at the moment.  You can throw out any economic data due out this week as the market has taken on a life of its own.  The last fibonacci retracement level for the SPY on a snap back basis is around 275.  That could be the spot to try the puts again.  We are at 269.  I may be willing to take a chance there.  If we somehow go lower from here, I might want to try the calls again at around the 260 level.  The only thing that I can say for sure is that we are in a very fluid situation that requires a skill level that I may not possess.  But that won't stop me from trying.  Again, don't fall in love with anything and take your profits when you can.  The market conditions that we are experiencing now won't continue forever.  The trading will get back to normal eventually.  But we saw a parabolic rise to the top and now we've seen the inevitable collapse of that.  Where we go from here is all that matters.  But don't expect any new all time highs anytime soon.  Foreign markets were crushed overnight.  We'll see how things go overnight and I'll try to come up with the next trading idea before the February expiration. 

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