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Thursday, February 08, 2018

The Dow got clobbered again and lost over 1000 points for the second time this week.  The most watched index fell 1033 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  At this rate we are moving into the potential crash zone for the summation index.  We're not there yet but if the decline continues we could get there soon.  Volatility remains elevated and the trading is tricky as premiums are sky high for the SPY options.  That said, the retest of the early week lows has already failed.  Where we go from here is a guessing game.  I guess 2500 on the S&P 500 would be a good spot to have the decline take a breather.  It's a nice round number and it is below the 200 day moving average.  But looking at the daily chart, there's support that comes in right where we are now, give or take a few points.  And a few points here means about 25 or 50.  We've now had a 10% correction but the market is in crazy mode.  Tomorrow will be interesting.  GE lost 3/4 and the volume is still heavy.  New lows for this move lower in GE.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Not exactly a flight to safety for gold and the dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short the rallies is about all I can say here.  If there are any rallies.  We did have a bounce but it died rapidly yesterday.  I might consider the SPY February calls again if we get to 250 there.  There's better support at 245 though.  It is all in a state of flux at the moment.  On a very short term basis this could be the 5th wave down of the move lower that began on January 29th.  That's my best guess for now.  Trying a trade here would be very risky.  After somehow getting away with the last trade, it may be better to just sit on the sidelines for now.  I'll consider the alternatives overnight.  What we are seeing is the result of the parabolic move higher in January.  This is how those moves end.  The trip down can be just as fast or even faster as we are witnessing right now.  There will be opportunities though if you are good enough to find and take advantage of them.  We'll continue to keep looking.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll finish out this volatile week tomorrow.

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