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Friday, February 02, 2018

And so it goes.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 665 on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  What can I say?  Another opportunity lost.  The employment report didn't really matter.  Yesterday the McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move and we got it today.  All parabolic moves end ugly and here is your proof from the markets extraordinary rise since the beginning of January.  I'm not sure how low we go here but all rallies can be shorted from here on out.  The long running bull market is over.  I had pegged 273 on the SPY for the extent of this decline, which equated to 5%.  We may go further.  I'm looking for follow through selling Monday morning but that will be the opportunity to get long for a short term bounce if you so desire.  We are now extremely short term oversold and upside is coming.  The tricky part will be trying to figure out where to buy the SPY February puts to hold until expiration Friday.  That seems to me to be the better trading idea in the days to come next week.  I just wasn't quick enough to recognize the opportunity this week.  Again.  But on the plus side at least my ideas are looking better and it is only a matter of time before the winning trades start rolling in.  GE was off over 1/3 and broke $16.  Volume remains very heavy here.  I don't have any ideas for GE right now.  Gold dropped around $15 as the US dollar was higher.  Interest rates have taken off and that finally was reflected in gold and the dollar.  The XAU shed 3 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was pretty heavy.  The gold shares were overbought and due for a decline.  We're seeing that now.  Mentally I'm feeling a but frustrated as the market drops and I'm not taking advantage of it.  Perhaps the speed of the SPY is too much for me, since I haven't really traded it sine last October.  There's also the chance that I'm too risk averse since the last few trades that I did in the SPY were losers.  I'm going to have to try and sort things out in my head over the weekend because the market is certainly not going to wait around for me to get my act together.  Usually what happens after a drop like this is that you will get a huge upside day out of the blue.  Then everyone thinks that things are back to normal.  That will be the time to look to try the SPY puts again.  I don't know if it will work on the first bounce or not because what we have seen this week is extreme.  But I do know we'll see some kind of big upside day at some point next week.  How the market does after that will tell you a lot about where we are heading.  Europe and Asia were generally lower but I expect Monday morning overseas to be ugly.  There's a couple weeks left in the February option cycle, so there is still time to tackle a trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  If you are nimble enough the SPY calls purchased on Monday weakness should work for a short term trade.  If not, I'd look to short any two to three day rally next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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