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Friday, February 23, 2018

The market powered higher today as the Dow gained 347 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned around and is moving higher.  My idea of a decline here only lasted a couple of days as the market was digesting its gains and not making a short term top.  I did manage to bring myself to sell the SPY March puts that I had for a 20% loss.  They did show a 10% gain at one point during the trading session but as usual I hung around hoping for a turnaround.  The market proved me wrong and I got out.  The light volume today is a concern for the bulls but I did not want to hang around.  It appears that my overall prognosis that the top is in could be wrong at this point as well.  The small stocks continue to act well and it looks like we're going back to test the all time highs.  GE didn't participate as usual and was off a penny.  Volume was light for lately.  I'm still considering the GE March calls but GE is such a slow moving stock that perhaps forgetting this idea all together is the best plan.  However the SPY moves very fast and it seems like that I'm really not up for that task at the moment for some reason.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade in the books.  I'm not sure how I feel about that.  I was able to at least get out with a relatively small loss but I had plenty of chances to eek out a small gain.  But my trading tactics were lousy.  More than once today my mind was saying just get out and I didn't.  I kept waiting for a roll over to the downside that just didn't happen.  The market didn't do as I expected, as my work suggested a down session today and we got more than just the opposite.  I'm beginning to thank that my idea of where we are going here is wrong.  If we get follow through buying on Monday, then I think that I'll have to reevaluate what I'm thinking.  We did close on the highs of the session and that's bullish.  There's still plenty of time in the March option cycle to attempt another trade.  But will I be up to the task?  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed with muted moves last night.  I'll try and put todays loss behind me and start the week off on a fresh note.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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