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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Lower again today as the Dow fell 167 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is starting to trend sideways.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and the small stocks had a lesser relative decline.  We were in positive territory for most of the session.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts and it somehow got filled near the highs for the session.  They are already showing a profit.  Depending on how things go in the next couple of days will determine how long I hold on to this position.  I should be out by the close on Friday or sometime on Monday at the latest.  I don't think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside but I certainly don't know.  Weakness was to be expected this week and we are certainly seeing that's the case so far.  GE fell another 1/4 on heavier volume.  The March calls keep getting cheaper here and that looks like it could be my next trade after the SPY puts.  Gold was off $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  An interesting session as we did open higher and close lower for a one day reversal.  The market was humming along and had a brief spike higher after the Fed minutes.  But things pretty much fell apart in the final hour and a half.  Technically the short term indicators are mid-range, so we could go either way here.  I am looking for further weakness though and it's not just because I own the puts.  My work says that we should see some more selling before the end of the week.  We'll see if that actually comes to pass.  The timing on the entry here looks to be pretty good.  Now all that matters is the exit.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow pass regardless of the price movement and wait to sell the puts on Friday or Monday.  That is the game plan at the moment.  Subject to change as always depending on market conditions.  I think that this trade has a chance to be a winner but it is a matter of managing it properly from here.  Asia was generally higher in last nights trade but a lot of markets were closed.  Europe was mixed.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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