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Monday, February 26, 2018

The market continues to advance as the Dow soared 399 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  No fear in the market now as the bulls have taken over.  The VIX is heading back to its 50 day moving average at around 15.  In my mind that is a key level and I'll be watching to what happens when we get there.  It may be a spot to try the SPY March puts again.  But for now it looks like we are going to go back to the old highs of a month ago.  It's early but we could be building a double top in the major stock averages.  However we'll have to wait and see on that.  GE had quite a turnaround after getting below $14 today.  It finished with a gain of over 1/8 on pretty heavy volume.  Perhaps $14 is the line in the sand for the decline.  If we wander back down there, the March calls could be the next trade.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I think that the fundamentals do not favor gold at the moment.  But there is a potential short term double bottom on the daily charts for the gold share indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm over last weeks loss and trying to figure out where we go from here.  It appears that the rally is back on and I don't want to argue with that.  But I don't think that we will simply head straight on higher again as we did for most of January.  I would be surprised if we did.  If we continue higher into Thursday, then I may try the SPY March puts again because we will be short term overbought.  However that hasn't happened yet and there is plenty of time left to trade this week.  Some of the short term technical indicators are getting overbought.  At this point I'm going to simply wait and see where the market takes us before Fridays employment report.  If things line up for the SPY put trade I'll take it.  If not I'll stay on the sidelines until I see something else.  GE is still on the radar for the March calls but today could have been the day to initiate that idea.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia rallied in the overnight session.  We'll see how the market reacts to the new Fed chiefs remarks tomorrow.

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