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Friday, February 09, 2018

The Dow held up today for a change and rose 330 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Did we hit bottom today?  Could be for the short term in my mind.  But this is a crazy time in the markets and we do have option expiration week coming up.  It was another 1000 point range day for the Dow and we certainly aren't used to that.  5 days left in the February option cycle and the premiums remain very elevated.  The risk is also because if your timing isn't spot on here there won't be enough time to recover.  I'm going to have to look things over this weekend and make a decision as to what to do.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Perhaps I could go out to the March calls here.  That would at least give the trade some time to work.  I'll look at it over the next couple of days.  Gold and the US dollar were both little changed.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was very heavy here.  The gold shares have been falling for three straight weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that we have a positive divergence for the short term with the McClellan oscillator.  We've hit lower prices with a higher oscillator reading this week.  It also looks like we have potential double bottoms on some of the short term technical indicators for the SPY.  Along with another potential completion of an A-B-C-D-E wave down on a very short term basis.  That's what it looks like to me here.  The February SPY calls are very pricey though, with the abnormal volatility that we've seen this week.  I am going to have to look things over carefully this weekend and determine if a trade is worth it.  I also should keep in mind that I usually don't perform well with the short term trades.  Going out to March with GE may be the better idea but I'll decide that over the weekend.  It was quite a week in the markets and there were plenty of opportunities for profit.  Next week should prove the same.  Asia and Europe were both lower but Europe not as much.  There will be plenty to ponder over the next two days.  But right now it's Friday afternoon and time for a much needed break.

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