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Monday, February 12, 2018

Continuing higher to begin the week as the Dow climbed 410 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The decline is over for now as far as I'm concerned.  We had a five wave move down and we will now form a bottom or simply continue higher from here.  The short term technical indicators for the SPY have turned up.  I'll be looking for a retest of the lows of last week at some point.  That would be the ideal situation.  If they hold then calls are to be purchased.  If they don't, then we'll be going a lot lower rather quickly.  I do not expect that to happen.  Only 4 days to go in the February option cycle.  I do not think that I'll be trying a trade with the SPY here but you never know.  I'll be looking at the calls unless we are up for the next 3 days.  I then may try the puts for expiration.  But the short term trades are full of risk.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  I am looking at the March calls here.  The only problem for me is that GE is a slow moving equity.  It could simply trend sideways for the next five weeks.  However if the options get cheap enough, I may attempt a trade.  Gold was up $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was very heavy.  Perhaps we'll put in a bottom here on the gold shares.  They are oversold and have had a nice 2 day pattern on the daily candlestick chart.  There's a potential hammer bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got some follow through to Friday gains and I think the selling is washed up for now.  I could be wrong.  It is expiration week in front of a holiday weekend.  The VIX indicators are mid-range but trending lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to recover as well.  I don't really have a short term signal here yet but my gut wants to go with the long side for the immediate future and into March.  I think that we've raised enough fear to keep people guessing.  There won't be any straight up moves form here in my opinion.  Waiting for the right opportunity will be my challenge.  We'll keep an eye on things.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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