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Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Bouncing around today as the market is trying to make up its mind on where to go.  The Dow lost 19 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up almost 400 points during the day.  So you can see that the intra-day volatility remains.  I was considering the SPY February puts at one point but the premiums are still out of whack.  I may look to try the calls again if we retest the lows before expiration.  A run back to the 275 level on the SPY will have me attempting the puts.  As you can see the situation remains fluid.  I am going to try not to be in any kind of rush and consider myself fortunate to have gotten out of the previous trade unscathed.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume is still heavy.  Gold dropped over $10 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume here remains good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've basically had a short term collapse and now we are in the aftermath.  The option premiums are still all over the place and that makes for difficult trading.  But as the days pass on the way to expiration, the volatility premium will evaporate.  If I do attempt another trade in the February cycle, it will be at the price that I want and nothing else.  Getting a signal would be the ideal situation but if we get to the levels that I explained before it may very well be worth a shot.  You can forget the economic data for now and simply focus on the market movement itself.  Earnings have suddenly taken a back seat but that's what happens when you get a trading environment like this.  Risk is higher than normal but the rewards have the potential to be higher as well.  Most likely quicker too but that makes for tougher trading.  You can always simply stay on the sidelines and wait for things to settle down.  I'll be keeping an eye on things and hopefully the market will cooperate for another profitable trade before the 16th.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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