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Monday, March 26, 2018

Quite a bounce today as the Dow climbed 669 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were completely oversold any way you look at it.  So a bounce was due.  We got it and now comes the question of where do we go from here?  The short term technical indicators are still in the oversold zone.  So there's plenty of room for improvement there.  But in sustained downtrends, rallies spring out of nowhere.  Today fits that picture.  If the market is going to hold up here, it will have to continue to the upside.  Maybe not tomorrow or later in the week but overall it would have to move higher in the next week or so.  It is a shortened holiday week with not much in the way of economic data due out.  So we'll probably be driven by the headlines or latest news out of Washington.  My SPY April calls are still in the red but they did recover some of the loss.  How to manage this trade from here will determine the extent of the loss.  I don't think that it will get back to break even.  I could be wrong.  GE was off over 1/8 on good volume.  A market up over 600 points and GE cannot even show a gain.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar continued lower.  This relationship is in sync.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was slightly better than average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see where we go from here.  Will the summation index turn around or will the selling continue?  We've got the end of the trading month coming up on Thursday.  The weekly charts do not look bullish, so today could be all the upside we get.  The technical indicators there are showing lower lows with last weeks debacle.  It is a wait and see matter at this point.  Plenty of time left in the April option cycle.  However my entry on this trade was about as bad as it gets as we dropped about 1000 points after the entry.  I suppose there's a chance that we could head back up towards the short term uptrend line that was recently broken.  But that may just be wishful thinking on my part.  The market always goes where it wants.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights market action and see if we get any upside follow through in the US tomorrow. 

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