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Thursday, March 22, 2018

The Dow got clobbered today on trade war fears and lost 724 points on a bit better than average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index has now turned lower.  It was a weak start to the session but we managed to hang a round a two to three hundred point loss.  I did buy some SPY April calls.  We collapsed in the final couple of hours and my position has lost almost half of its value.  One of my indicators is overblown to the downside and that only happens when the market falls apart.  It looks like yet another losing trade here.  We'll get some kind of snap back eventually but it probably won't be in time to save this trade.  I'm not sure why my read of the market has been so poor lately.  The VIX spiked up today but the summation index is not near the crash zone.  However the market goes where it wants to.  All the major stock indices got creamed today and some closed right on their lows.  Unless we get some type of rally attempt tomorrow, this trade is doomed.  GE lost 1/2 on average volume.  Perhaps GE not holding the $14 level was a clue but it's always easy to see things in retrospect.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures and the US dollar showed a slight gain.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX was off 1/3 on average volume.  No flight to the gold shares for safety.  Mentally I'm feeling ambivalent.  When the trading indicators that I follow don't work I'm really at a loss of what to do.  Perhaps I should just get out of this trade and wait for a better opportunity down the road.  I really thought that this trade had a chance as like I said before.  We don't get the readings that we're seeing on one of my indicators unless the market is going to collapse.  The market usually doesn't collapse unless the summation index is near the zero line.  The indicator is saying the market is a strong buy.  Yet we fell apart today.  These are the kind of things that I'm struggling with at the moment.  Todays price action does tell me that my original scenario of the overall bull market top being in for the S&P 500 is valid.  We won't be seeing any more new all time highs there this year.  I guess my best advice here is hold on to your seats because it looks like it will be quite a bumpy ride.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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