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Thursday, March 29, 2018

A rally today although we did finish well off of the intra-day highs.  The Dow gained 254 points on average volume.  We were up over 400 at one point during the session.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  I did not expect such a huge gain today as I thought that the market would be quiet heading into a long weekend.  Perhaps it was the end of the month and quarter activity that drove todays trading.  My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses.  I should probably get rid of them next week regardless of the outcome.  We are still holding onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P but that could change next week.  I'll need to see an early week rally in order to cut the loss on my position.  GE was off 20 cents and the volume was good.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/2 while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was lighter than lately.  We haven't gotten completely oversold on the gold shares yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 despite todays rise.  These indicators have turned up but still have a ways to go to get to overbought.  Three weeks remain in the April option cycle.  My SPY April calls are still far out of the money.  That is why my best hope is for an early week rally next week and an exit from this trade.  We've got the employment report on Friday and I probably should not wait for that.  However I usually hold on to my trades for too long and that could always happen again.  I cannot stress enough how important it is for the bulls here for the market to hang on.  A drop below the 200 day moving average would be catastrophic for the market right now in my opinion.  I am seeing some other indicators that I follow showing buy signals on a longer term basis.  Whether or not that pans out we'll know in the coming weeks.  The indicators for the VIX have rolled over as well.  A drop below 17.5 here would break the recent uptrend line and give me some hope for the SPY trade.  Hasn't happened yet and there is no guarantee that it will.  A VIX drop to the 15 level would be a sign to try the SPY puts.  That's the way I see things there at the moment.  There will be plenty to look at over the long weekend but a break from the action is advised as well.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  It was an interesting first quarter for the stock market.  Perhaps the second quarter will be a little different but of course nobody knows for sure.  My trading in the first quarter was abysmal and can only improve from here.  It's Thursday afternoon in front of an extended weekend.  Time for a break.     

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