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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Some bouncing around after the Fed today and the Dow closed with a loss of 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We finished well off of the highs today.  The Fed notched up rates as expected.  There weren't any surprises.  It looks like I may try the SPY April calls tomorrow if we see some early weakness.  I'll have to go over things again tonight but I think this idea has some merit in the short term.  The option premiums are expensive so the timing in and out will have to be pretty good.  I'll ponder this some more tonight.  GE was up 1/4 on what passes for average volume here these days.  Stuck in a down trend and I'm looking at the SPY right now.  Any trades in GE will have to wait.  Gold gained over $20 on the futures as the US dollar got whacked.  A rise in interest rates and gold rises while the dollar falls?  That is pretty much counter intuitive.  It is no wonder why trading these markets is the toughest game in the world.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX climbed 5/8.  Volume was heavy.  what does the market know that we don't?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm looking to attempt my next trade tomorrow if all goes according to plan.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and I'm expecting them to turn back up here.  The summation index is moving sideways and that could continue and this trade could still work.  Unless we see a collapse like we had on Monday, I'll probably be trying this trade.  I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to it but I will be exiting rather quickly if it doesn't work.  Another problem with plenty of time to go in the option cycle is that the premiums don't move as much with the underlying index.  What I mean by that is the SPY could have a decent move and the options won't move as much accordingly.  However if my timing is right on this idea, there will still be money to be made.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

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