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Wednesday, March 07, 2018

We had a gap lower at the open and the Dow was off around 350 points during the session.  We did stage a comeback though and the Dow finished with a loss of 82 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the plus.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher here.  I wanted to chase the move lower this morning but didn't.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts but canceled it later on.  I might try again tomorrow but this trade would be highly risky.  There's only 7 days left in the March option cycle and we have the jobs report on Friday.  The market tried to sell off today and failed.  The short term technical indicators for the major big cap indices are mid-range.  So we could go either way but things look like they are leaning towards a break out to the upside.  The only caveats being the three black crows candlestick pattern that remains out there along with the short term down trend line in the S&P 500.  That comes in at the 2750 level.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  GE made a comeback from its lows, following the overall market.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a little higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  So which way we will go here?  I'm pretty sure we'll know by Friday.  The market is kind of shrugging off a lot of bad political news here.  That is generally bullish.  The small stocks are still showing good relative strength and that is a positive.  The VIX is heading back to its 50 day moving average.  A move lower through there would probably send us off into full rally mode.  I'm still considering the SPY March puts though.  I can bail out Friday morning if they turn out to be the wrong move.  I am still a believer in the three black crows pattern for now.  If we somehow make it to the 2750 level in the S&P tomorrow, I'll try the puts.  I may try them anyway.  Waiting for Friday will probably be too late if they are going to work.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

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