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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 248 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  Retail sales did come up light today.  However I don't think this decline is the beginning of a rout to the downside.  The small stocks remain relatively stronger and that is a plus.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over though.  We aren't seeing the usual expiration week positive bias.  We're just going to have to wait and see where things go for the rest of the week.  GE was off over 1/8 but the volume was lighter.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved again on very light volume.  No interest in the gold shares either way here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm at a loss for trading ideas here as I don't have any valid signals at the moment.  I'm also rethinking my main thesis that the rally from 2009 is over.  I was a firm believer in that thesis until the last trade and the small stocks making new all time highs.  I'm just going to let things play out for the rest of the week here and roll into the April option cycle.  With only 2 days left here in the March cycle, sitting on the sidelines appears to be the best choice for me.  Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of the DAX.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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