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Friday, April 13, 2018

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The market bounced around and finished with a loss of 122 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has been moving up but with no conviction.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  We'll see if that occurs on Monday.  Really low volume lately and that's a sign of no interest.  We do have a chance to break higher here and violate some down trend lines but it hasn't happened yet.  I sold my SPY April calls for a 95% loss.  What more can I say about that.  Horrible trade all the way around.  I had several chances to cut the loss but never took them.  It's back to the drawing board.  GE showed some life and was up 1/3 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks as the US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are out performing here and that is a plus.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues to frustrate here as after the extreme volatility we've simply plodded around with not direction.  That can happen in the April option cycle and that was the case this time around.  We had some volatility in the beginning of the cycle but not like what we saw in February.  I believe what we're doing now is setting up for the next major leg up or down.  Either we're gonna head up and test the all time highs or we're gonna break the near term support and go lower.  I'm leaning towards the latter scenario.  May has a tendency to bring selling and if we continue to drift here without getting above the sown trend line in the S&P, I think we'll eventually head lower.  We've got options expiration week coming up and the continued risk of a headline event.  I do not anticipate making any trades in the near term.  I may go back and take another look at gold here but it is getting short term overbought.  However I just had one of my biggest losers to date and perhaps a step or two back would be the prudent path at this juncture.  The market won't wait for me to be ready though as the game is unforgiving.  I'll check things on the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night although Europe did finish well off the best levels on the day.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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