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Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Today was just a crazy session as the Dow had a gap lower and was down over 500 points shortly after the open.  It somehow came all the way back and then some by the close.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 230 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  It looked like the market was going to fall off a cliff and it somehow found its footing with an incredible daily rally.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  But the volatility is extreme here and no market moves can be trusted.  The 200 day moving averages have held for now.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up but not with any conviction.  My SPY April calls are still big losers as it would take a sustained rally to get them back to a manageable loss.  There are still over two weeks to go in the April option cycle.  However you cannot expect a straight up rise in price from here.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was lighter.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the day little changed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll be waiting on the employment report on Friday but in this environment it's hard to tell just what might happen tomorrow.  The Fed chair Powell will also be giving a speech on Friday.  So there's still plenty of time this week for some more crazy gyrations.  I think that the VIX can go either way from here but todays price action was encouraging for the bulls.  The small stocks did have a relatively better showing but one day doesn't make a trend.  That said, if the recent drop in tech has ended then the overall atmosphere would be a bit more positive.  However none of that matters if we simply turn back down tomorrow on the major stock indices.  As I've already said before we're at an important point at the 200 day moving average.  It's either going to be a double bottom or the bottom is going to fall out.  Perhaps we'll know by the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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