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Thursday, April 19, 2018

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 83 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We are at a spot where things could turn around as the VIX got back to the 15 level.  There are also potential negative chart patterns on numerous indices.  But that's just it, there's potential.  Nothing has actually happened yet.  We could just as easily continue to head higher.  But I'm not a believer in that.  I'm sticking with my now long held position that the long bull market is over.  I'm looking at the SPY May puts and I do want to buy some in the near future.  The market may not wait for me though.  I am going to let tomorrows expiration pass and go from there.  GE gained 1/3 on good volume ahead of the earnings.  We're right at the 50 day moving average and the $14 level.  Tomorrows price action will tell a lot.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  The gold shares have held up pretty good here.  I'm considering the longer term calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is now oversold and due to move up.  The TRAN did not make it through the resistance at 10800.  What I would like to see is the S&P 500 make it back up to the 2725 level and simply puts some puts there.  I'm not sure if the market will cooperate.  With the summation index moving higher the path of least resistance is up for now.  But if we do drift up from here, I'm going to try the May puts.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll close out the week with options expiration tomorrow.

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