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Thursday, April 05, 2018

We got some follow through to the upside today as the Dow rose 240 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around and that's a plus.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today though.  Plus the volume here on the rise has been weak.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and are about mid-range.  So things could go either way here.  the rally could continue or we could roll back over.  Tomorrows jobs data and Fed speech should propel us one way or the other.  My SPY April calls are still big losers.  It will take a massive rally form here to cut the loss to something respectable.  Plenty of time left though.  GE was up another 1/8 or so on light volume.  No news or rumors here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Looks like a trading range for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It has been quite a week and I expect some fireworks tomorrow as well.  My guess is that anything can happen.  I'm looking at exiting this SPY trade by this Tuesday at the latest.  There is virtually no chance that it will ever get back to being in the money over the next two weeks.  It would take an incredible rally for that to happen and we've already had one of those this week.  The 200 day moving average has held so far for the S&P 500.  The problem is that all the talking heading in the media are saying that we've formed a double bottom in the S&P.  When everybody sees the same thing the market usually will prove them wrong.  So really anything goes from here.  The VIX appears to have rolled over here but that can turn on a dime.  It will be interesting to see how we close out the trading week.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll finish out the first week of April tomorrow.

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