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Monday, June 03, 2013

A bounce was due and perhaps even overdue as the Dow gained 138 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative though, reflecting the overall market weaker than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator was blown out to the downside and positive price action was expected.  We were also oversold on a short and medium term basis.  I would still expect more near term upside.  The question is what happens after that?  The Dow being the leader here isn't bullish.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm inclined to look at the OEX puts before the release of the employment report.  We will have to see how the market trades ahead of that.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Strength in GE leads me to believe that the decline is nothing to worry about.  So there are mixed signals for the stock indices going forward.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold had a good day on a very weak US dollar.  The precious metal futures were up $18 today.  The XAU rose 2 7/8.  ABX and NEM had slight fractional gains, while GG was up 3/4.  All of these issues finished off of the highs for the day.  Volume was light to average.  I would have liked to have seen better price action for these three.  They are all hesitating at the 50 day moving average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices held their own today.  It's possible that we will make a run back to the old highs but I certainly don't know.  Friday looms large for now.  Perhaps if we head higher into Friday, I'll try the June OEX puts.  Depends on the breadth of the advance if we go that way.  Gold had a good day which erased the losses of this past Friday.  Follow through to the upside is imperative for the bullish cause near term.  If the dollar remains weak that would be supportive for gold prices.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  We'll watch the action overnight and take it from there.     

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