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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Another volatile session with a one day reversal to the downside.  The Dow opened up over 100 points only to sell off for the remainder of the session and close with a loss of 126 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and the McClellan oscillator is extremely negative.  The oscillator reading would imply some type of bounce due soon but it implied that yesterday as well.  Hanging around the 50 day moving average in the major US stock indices.  Retail sales should be the catalyst tomorrow morning.  The small stocks appear to be holding up better than the large caps and that would be bullish moving forward.  Not a lot of volume in the market though and that is not a good sign.  GE was off a bit on light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold came back a little today.  The futures gained $15 but fell back in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly weaker on the day.  The gold shares continue to lag as the XAU was up only 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had small fractional gains on light volume.  Gold continues to be a non-event despite the recent weakness in the US dollar.  June is historically a poor month for the precious metal.  Perhaps sideways is the most we can expect for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would not be surprised to see the decline in stocks turn around here soon.  Oversold and staying there though, isn't a good thing for the bulls.  But the momentum and breadth has been extremely negative lately, without a really huge move in points.  The next couple of days could be key, with the 50 day moving average in play.  We'll see.  Gold remains above the crash lows but there is no rally in sight here.  Perhaps building a longer base will mean the ensuing move will be large.  That's a guess as usual and which way the move goes for the yellow metal is up for grabs at this point.  My October ABX calls are almost back to break even.  The continuing lack of price movement isn't helping things as the time decay on the options continues.  We'll watch to see if the foreign markets follow the Dows lead overnight and keep an eye on the retail sales report tomorrow morning.   

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