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Wednesday, June 19, 2013

We erased the gains for the week as the Dow fell 206 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The Fed statement was the same as the last one but the market knows that the easy money is coming to an end.  That will be a problem going forward.  The summation index steadied yesterday but will be back to heading lower after today.  The McClellan oscillator headed back to the zero line yesterday and now has been rebuffed.  This is important for the fact that momentum is now heading lower instead of higher.  Certainly things could turn around tomorrow but I don't see a catalyst for that.  The overall picture is now muddy instead of clear.  It makes for tougher trading in a tough trading world to begin with.  GE was off 1/3 on good volume.  We are getting a pull back from the break out yesterday but now there is the question of if it even matters or not.  I still think that I'm going to try the July calls here and probably tomorrow as well.  GE goes ex-dividend at the open so we should see a lower open and cheaper premiums for the July calls.  I'll ponder this trade overnight and decide from there.  Gold was up $7 on the futures but fell $25 in the aftermarket on the Fed and a stronger US dollar.  The XAU dropped 2 7/8.  Gold has now reached the all important $1350 level and the XAU is at its previous lows for the third time.  It is the moment of truth for gold and the gold shares  It really looks and feels as though a breakdown is inevitable.  ABX and GG lost about a buck, while NEM fell 3/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  My October ABX calls are now solidly in the red and I may simply have to dump them if we break any lower here.  That looks like the case here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Volatility has picked up and we are now faced with the question of where do we go from here?  The technicals for the stock indices will now roll back over after todays price action.  I could make a case for rapidly lower prices form here but that is just a guess.  It will be important to see where the rest of the week goes.  One of the problems here is that the volume has been light until today.  And today was to the downside.  These developments are not bullish.  It may be a time to just play it safe.  Gold is at the moment of truth and it certainly doesn't look like it will hold up here.  Tomorrow is important here as well.  We'll most likely see downside follow through around the world and a lower US open tomorrow. 

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