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Thursday, June 13, 2013

Back to the upside with a huge gain as the Dow rose 180 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive.  A bounce was expected with the McClellan oscillator simply blown out to the downside again.  We now have a double bottom in place there for the short term, which implies more gains going forward.  The major indices also held their 50 day moving averages once again.  The small cap stock index charts also look more positive than the big caps.  So I would say that the decline is over for now but I expect that the next time we head down to the 50 day moving average, we'll be breaking it.  That's my guess for now.  GE was up fractionally today on light volume.  In a sideways trend here for about 4 weeks.  Gold was lower on the futures today, losing $14.  The US dollar was lower today as well.  The usual relationship between gold and the dollar continues to be out of sync.  I don't know why.  The XAU was up a point.  ABX was flat on the day, while GG and NEM rose 1/3 or so.  These stocks found buyers at the end of the day.  Volume was light again.  There's still no real interest in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Obviously should have tried the OEX calls this morning but did not.  Retail sales came in better than expected.  I don't think that was the reason for todays rise.  The Japan stock market was clobbered last night but the Dow still managed a big gain today.  Perhaps the world views the US stock market as a safer bet.  However the words stock market and safe do not go together.  We'll stick with the technicals and the signals were leaning towards a bounce.  Perhaps the Dow will run up into the expiration, since there is usually a positive bias during expiration week.  But who knows?  Volatility has picked up, that much we know.  Gold remains going nowhere fast.  Ditto for the gold shares.  It could be a long hot summer for gold.  No volume and no real interest since the crash lows.  My October ABX calls are at break even.  We'll see if we can get a bounce in the overseas market and wrap things up for the week tomorrow.   

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