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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Sticking with the trend for higher prices today as the Dow gained 114 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 positive.  Todays breadth will move the McClellan oscillator back into positive territory.  This should also halt the decline in the summation index.  I think you can say the worst is over for now in the stock indices.  That doesn't mean that it's off to the races from here.  I still like the OEX put trade when we reach the declining tops line.  That could occur sometime next week.  That would be a short term trade for the July option cycle.  As long as the volume stays light here, that idea has a good chance at working.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  I'm still considering the July calls here ahead of the earnings report on July 19th.  Still above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold got bashed again, off $20 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket.  This happened despite a flat day in the US dollar.  It has been an incredible rout for the precious metal with no end in sight.  However the gold shares didn't follow today despite the big sell off in gold itself.  The XAU was up 2 points.  This is the first positive divergence in quite a while.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good to heavy volume.  I've once again placed an open order for the October ABX calls.  If the order gets filled and eventually shows a profit I won't be holding on to it this time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are getting the preferred market action here.  A light volume rally to test the declining tops line and snap back to the broken up trend line for the major stock indexes.  Next week will be a shortened holiday affair with July 4th falling on Thursday.  The ideal area to get short would be around 1635-1640 on the S&P 500 and about 735-740 on the OEX.  I'll try to be patient and wait for those levels.  If we do see a decline from there, that could be the chance to pick up the July GE calls.  It's all just wishful thinking at this point.  Anything can and will happen in this game.  I do not think that we are heading to new highs in the stock indices anytime soon.  I could be wrong.  Gold is in a panic free fall and has been all month it seems.  I'm willing to take another chance on the gold shares here and I haven't gotten this trade correct since last autumn.  I'm keeping that in mind as well.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and close out the month of June tomorrow. 

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