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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Well so much for the early summer doldrums as volatility returned today.  The Dow went into free fall at the open and dropped over 150 points.  We then climbed all the way back to positive territory only to roll over again.  The most watched index fell 116 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm not sure what to make of things here.  Deeply oversold on the McClellan oscillator most likely after todays action.  That would imply another bounce due sooner rather than later.  But the breadth has been pretty negative in the last couple of weeks.  The rally is most likely over in my opinion , as I stated here last week.  I could be wrong and often am but maybe not this time.  We'll see.  GE was off 20 cents on lighter volume.  We need to get solidly over $24 to be bullish here.  Gold continues lower, the futures fell 9 bucks today despite a very weak US dollar.  Gold and the dollar are not in sync and that is a problem for the gold bulls here.  The gold shares are heading lower as well.  The XAU dropped 3 1/3.  ABX down 3/4, GG shed 7/8 and NEM lost over a buck.  Volume remains light here.  Gold is still above the crash lows and the gold shares are under performing.  Not a positive picture for my October ABX calls as they remain just barely in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see where we go from here as a case could be made for either way.  Today the dip was bought and then sold again.  But we are oversold on some technicals as well.  My idea for the OEX puts is now too late unless we get a decent set-up in the next week.  Any trade has more risk now if it is in the June cycle with only 8 days to go.  Gold remains unloved and not of interest to anybody at this time.  The gold shares were turned around at their 50 day moving averages.  They need to hold their most recent lows as well for the bullish cause.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there. 

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