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Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Continuing higher in front of the Fed as the Dow rose 138 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should stop the summation index from moving lower.  I thought we would be in a holding pattern ahead of Bernanke but the short term up trend continues.  Are we heading to new highs again on the Dow?  Perhaps.  The small stocks look a lot better here and they are the leaders one way or the other usually.  But anything goes after tomorrow.  I'm still a believer that we are building a longer term top here.  However the technicals are now moving higher on some of the major stock indices.  Yesterday I mentioned there was a case for both the bulls and the bears and that is still in place.  But we are seeing the positive short term tone of the market now.  It will be interesting to see what happens if we get to the old highs.  GE broke out today as it gained 1/2 on heavy volume.  If GE is any indication of where the market is going then new highs will be coming.  Obviously should have gotten the July calls here yesterday but if we get a pull back to the breakout there may be another chance.  Unfortunately when you're stuck in a trade as I am with something else, that tends to get your attention.  And when you can't give your full attention to what is going on in front of you, you miss things.  That said, the breakout in GE is comfirmed by the volume.  July calls are in order.  Gold fell today as it looks like the gold market is anticipating some hawkish attitude from the Fed.  The precious metal futures fell $15.  The US dollar was little changed today.  The XAU dropped 2 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of 1/2 or more on average volume.  My October ABX calls have sunk into the red.  I'm still holding onto this position unless gold breaks the former crash lows at $1350.  That is a possibility going forward as despite the oversold condition for gold and the gold shares, no sustained rally has taken place.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode before the Fed.  The technicals have turned and it looks like we are going higher.  But like I said before, anything can happen in this game.  If we do see some weakness tomorrow, I'll be looking to purchase some GE July calls.  Gold is still unloved and if we get a hawkish atmosphere from the Fed tomorrow it will only spell more trouble here.  I certainly don't know what is going to happen tomorrow but we will have to keep a close eye on all the markets reactions.  I expect the overseas markets to be on hold tonight.  We'll see what happens.   

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