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Thursday, June 20, 2013

Heading for the exits as the Dow and the markets got smashed today.  The Dow fell 353 points on heavy volume.  The easy money party is over.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  A mini crash today.  Could be more on the way eventually.  The S&P 500 broke the line in the sand at 1600 during the session.  The next chart support is at 1575 and then 1550.  Trend line support at around 1500.  We'll probably get there eventually.  The summation index is heading lower.  If we keep this pace of decline we'll be heading to the zero line in a hurry.  Crossing that would be another disaster waiting to happen.  I think we will but perhaps not until the autumn.  June options expire tomorrow.  I'd expect more downside near term but the market will have to turn around at one of the supports that I mentioned or it will get pretty ugly, pretty fast.  And we've already done that.  GE fell 1/2 on heavy volume.  I did place an order for the July calls today but then canceled it.  I placed another open order for overnight though.  I may cancel it tomorrow.  This is a trade that will work when we get the inevitable market snap back from the extreme downside that we are witnessing right now.  The entry will be important.  However if the stock indices simply collapse here, even the entry won't matter.  Gold got absolutely crushed today as the precious metal futures fell almost $90.  We broke the support at $1350.  That was the key.  The US dollar rose again today as the market continues to price in an end to the easy money Fed.  The XAU lost 7 1/4.  ABX shed 1 3/8, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM fell 2 1/8.  Whatever I have thought about gold since the beginning of the year has been dead wrong.  Gold is in a bear market and there haven't been any rallies of consequence since August/September of last year.  There will be a bounce eventually here as well but when that happens obviously I don't have a clue.  I dumped my October ABX calls for a loss of 75%.  This was a trade that was profitable a couple of times but I continued to hold onto it.  ABX will head back to the upside in due time but it's past due for me to exit that trade.  The break of $1350 sealed the deal.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So it's a rout for the stock, bond, metals and commodity markets all in tandem.  Another strategy here would be to simply step aside until things quiet down.  You won't lose any money at least.  The daily technicals for the stock indices haven't completely blown out to the downside yet.  So there will be even lower prices ahead.  How low is the question.  I'm going to keep an eye on the summation index.  If we go through the zero line it will not be pretty.  Gold is collapsing and the gold shares are reaching levels not seen in some time.  I'll probably try the gold share calls at some point over the summer but obviously now is not the time.  The month of June has lived up to its reputation as the worst month for the price of the yellow metal.  We'll see how bad it gets in the foreign markets tonight and finish up the week with the June expiration tomorrow.  Should be interesting. 

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