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Thursday, June 06, 2013

We got the overdue bounce today as the Dow gained 80 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive.  The McClellan oscillator was so blown out to the downside, it was reaching levels rarely seen.  The S&P 500 made it down to the 50 day moving average and the important 1600 level.  Yes, the decline could be over here but we don't know that just yet.  I did place an overnight order for some OEX calls but canceled it when we broke 1600 on the S&P 500.  The order would not have been filled if I left it open anyway because we started moving higher from there.  My reasoning for the trade was that a bounce was severely overdue.  I'm not sure what happens from here, with tomorrows employment report looming large.  The 50 day moving average has held for now.  GE came off of its lows on good volume and ended the day up a nickel.  GE has been in a drift for 3 weeks.  No trades in mind there.  Gold rose $17 today and fell back a touch in the aftermarket.  The price action in gold was not as positive as I would have liked to see, considering that the US dollar was absolutely crushed today.  The greenback fell over a point.  Perhaps we'll see a weak jobs number tomorrow.  The XAU rose 1 3/8 which wasn't much of a reaction either.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on average volume.  These issues are stalling at their 50 day moving averages.  Tomorrow should be interesting here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to pay close attention to the stock indices reaction to the employment numbers.  Perhaps there will still be a chance to play the bounce if we get a sell off early.  That's simply a guess at this point.  Anything could happen.  However with the momentum clearly oversold to the extreme, some kind of upside is expected.  I might try the OEX calls if the opportunity presents itself but it's risky.  2 weeks and a day left for the June option cycle.  Gold should have moved higher today in my opinion with the sell off in the US dollar.  Perhaps traders are waiting on the employment report or maybe there just isn't any interest in owning gold here.  We are just getting through the down trend line that has been in effect since mid-April.  Better price appreciation and volume will be needed to confirm a break through here.  Maybe tomorrow.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow our lead higher overnight while we wait for tomorrows numbers.

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