Pageviews past week

Friday, June 21, 2013

We stopped going down for now after the recent 2 day rout.  The Dow gained 41 points today on expiration very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are oversold.  However the summation index continues lower.  We will need to turn this indicator around or things will get even more dicey.  I'd be cautious going forward on the long side.  Even if we do stem the decline here, it doesn't mean that later in the summer we won't flirt with the zero line in the summation index.  Going through that line is a collapse event.  It could happen sooner but I think it will be later.  I doubt that we will see any decent, longer rallies for a while in the stock indexes.  The seasonality factor comes into play here as well.  Anything can and will happen in the markets.  But with today being the first day of summer, the stock market will most likely slow down.  The light volume before the recent collapse is probably a harbinger of things to come.  That's my guess at the moment.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was pretty heavy.  I'm leaving in my open order for the GE July calls.  We'll need to see some decline for this order to be filled.  I'm expecting GE to show relative strength vs. the S&P 500 in the near term.  The technicals here aren't completely oversold as yet.  I'll ponder this trade over the weekend.  Gold bounced today but it wasn't much.  The yellow metal futures rose 5 bucks.  The US dollar had another strong session.  That is to be expected with higher interest rates.  The XAU was up 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  I'll be trying the gold share calls again at some point.  But it will probably take a while for a good entry point.  The technicals here are oversold but the fundamentals for gold just aren't there at the moment.  The August/September time frame is generally positive for gold.  Perhaps I'll take a position before then.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a volatile week for the stock indexes.  Definitely oversold but there are no good reasons to get long here.  It could get quiet and sloppy going forward.  We stemmed the negative tide today but we've got the end of the month coming up next week.  Also there has been plenty of chart damage to the downside for the indices.  The small stocks were relatively weaker today and that isn't bullish going forward as well.  So it is probably a time to be careful if going long.  That said, I'm still considering the July GE calls.  We'll see.  Gold has been hammered once again.  Gold goes extreme both ways but it is going to eventually be like a rubber band.  It is getting stretched to the downside and there will be a pretty good snap back.  The question is when?  Sometimes just when you think the move is over, it keeps on going.  I'll be keeping an eye on it but I've been wrong about gold all year.  Chalked up another losing trade this week and the first half of the year has been horrible for my trading.  There is no getting around that fact.  I will have to work harder and smarter in the second half to get my trading turned around.  I'm in a confidence rut.  The game is difficult in itself.  There is no reason to make it any more challenging.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  For now it's the first Friday of the summer and time for a break.  

No comments: