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Friday, June 14, 2013

No follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow fell 105 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The Dow was weaker than the overall market.  I think that we will head higher short term.  However we are also in a waiting period on the Fed next week.  One of the problems for stocks here is the light volume.  There is no real conviction in the buying like there was before.  As long as 1600 holds on the S&P 500, we'll be OK for now.  But I do think that level will eventually break.  The longer we stay above that level and move sideways, the bigger the top that will be in place.  GE was off 1/4 on very light volume.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are converging.  This suggests a decent sized move one way or the other coming up.  Gold was up about $10 on the futures.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU is back to under performing the precious metal as it fell 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The technicals for these stocks are mid-range.  We could go either way from here short term.  The inflation data today was higher than expected for the PPI but did nothing to help the gold shares.  Could be a long summer for my October ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  One week to go in the June option cycle.  I might try a trade in the OEX options.  I'll be checking the charts here over the weekend.  Todays breadth was much stronger for a market down over 100 points.  I also expect the McClellan oscillator to move up from its current oversold reading.  Perhaps the Fed will be the catalyst.  Gold remains mired in an atmosphere of apathy and below its 50 day moving average.  I'm still positive as long as the crash lows of $1350 hold.  But we could be in an extended base building period.  That would not bode well for my ABX calls as the time premium would be taken out of them.  I'll be checking the technicals for the various markets over the weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan for next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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