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Friday, June 07, 2013

A huge rally today on the jobs report as the Dow gained 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just over 2 to 1 positive.  The bounce from 1600 on the S&P 500 has been pretty good and that was expected with such a negative oversold reading on the McClellan oscillator.  The employment report really didn't have any positive surprises.  But the market was so stretched out in one direction, it had to snap back in the other direction.  Will we go on to new highs from here?  I don't know but I don't think we will.  The volume today was light, despite an over 200 point move higher.  The market breadth wasn't all that great for such a huge move either.  The one thing that confuses me is the depth of the recent momentum decline without a real substantial move down in price.  I'll keep an eye on things going forward of course.  GE was up 1/2 on average volume and looks like it wants to go to new highs for the year.  Perhaps GE will provide some clues on the overall market direction.  We'll see where it goes next week.  Gold got clobbered today, off $32 on the futures and $5 more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was just slightly higher today, reflecting a muted reaction to the jobs report.  The XAU sank 4 1/4.  ABX and NEM were off 7/8, while GG fell 1 1/3.  Volume was light.  Not a good week for the gold shares and perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for in the coming weeks.  There is not catalyst at the moment for higher prices.  My October ABX calls are somehow still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the employment report out of the way.  The stock indexes were very oversold and we are now working off that condition.  Could this be the start of a summer rally that takes us to new highs?  Perhaps but I'm not sold on that idea yet.  However the markets will go where they want.  Gold had a very negative day.  It needs to hold above the crash lows of about $1350 or so for the bullish cause.  It has so far.  Maybe we are building an extended base for a move higher in the next few months.  That's a guess as usual.  Technically gold got overbought when we moved above $1400 and we are now working off that condition.  2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  I might try an OEX trade if a signal appears, even though I just missed the OEX call trade this week.  I'll try the puts if we get short term overbought.  Plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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