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Monday, June 24, 2013

A negative start to the week as the Dow fell 140 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative.  It could have been worse as we were off around 250 during the session.  Short term oversold and a bounce it certainly due.  However in this type of environment, anything could happen.  The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside again.  We could not make it through the zero line when attempted a few days ago.  The summation index is heading for the zero line and unless we get some kind of turnaround in a hurry, things will definitely get worse.  Caution is the preferred mode here and now for me.  Are there any reasons to buy stocks now in the middle of this mess?  Who knows?  We need to hold 1550 on the S&P 500 near term or we will go to 1500 in a hurry.  GE was off 3/8 on good volume.  I canceled my open order for the July calls here.  GE is trying to hold at its 50 day moving average.  I still may try this trade later in the week but probably shouldn't.  We'll see.  Gold was off $14 on the futures as the US dollar bounced around and ended the day a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 4 points.  ABX fell 1/3, while both GG and NEM lost a buck.  The gold shares are so beaten down that they really can't possibly drop much further in my mind.  After this weekends review, I'm probably going to try the ABX October calls again.  Or I may go out to January.  I have certainly been way off with my gold trades this year and that is something to consider going forward as well.  Not to mention that gold is in a bear market and the preferred trades would be short.  Plus if we really get a dramatic blow off drop in the stock indices, the gold shares will go along for the ride.  Plenty to ponder.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes are certainly due for a bounce here.  The trouble is that it may not be much more than that.  A break from the downside is expected here at some point.  But we are in a dangerous zone and that shouldn't be taken lightly.  As was noted earlier when the stock indexes were just plowing higher, momentum runs never end well.  We are witnessing that now.  Gold is still heading lower.  It is oversold and staying there.  The yellow metal isn't being viewed as a safe haven and the fundamentals are negative.  If ever there were a contrarian trade, this would be it.  We'll see how the trading goes overseas and take it from there.

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