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Friday, June 28, 2013

Selling to close out the month and the quarter as the Dow fell 114 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  This isn't the start of the decline that I'd like to short in the near term.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  At some point next week I'll try the OEX puts if we continue higher in the stock indices.  The ideal scenario is for the market averages to make it back up to their declining tops lines.  We'll see.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  We remain above the 50 day moving average here and that's a positive.  I'm still considering the July calls for GE.  Gold got a bounce today as the futures rose $12 and half that again in the aftermarket.  I'm thinking that the decline in gold has run its course.  Around the $1200 level should hold is my guess for now.  The technicals are completely blown out to the downside on whatever time frame you choose.  The $1200 level is also a Fibonacci number retracement from the high at around $1920.  Many are calling for a bottom in gold at the $1000 level.  Perhaps that will be the case but my guess is that we hold up here at least for now.  The XAU is now showing signs of life as well as it gained 5 3/4 today.  ABX rose 7/8, GG up 1 7/8 and NEM jumped 2 1/8.  Volume was heavy and that is a positive.  I still have the open order in for some October ABX calls.  However ABX remains a laggard here and perhaps I should switch to GG or NEM.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices stopped going down this week.  I don't think it is the beginning of a new major up trend.  The trading will be tricky next week because we have the July 4th holiday on Thursday and the employment report the day after that.  Traders will be taking a long weekend and the reaction to the employment report could be skewed.  I'd like to see a light volume rally going into Wednesday to try the July OEX puts.  But as usual the market will go where it wants and it usually doesn't give you the obvious set ups.  Perhaps there will be some beginning of the month money flows to get things headed to the upside.  Gold bounced today but one day doesn't make a rally.  That said, I'm still saying that the bottom for gold is here at around $1200.  I think that the decline in the gold shares has ended as well.  The weekly candlestick chart for the XAU now has a hammer formation to go along with the blown out to the downside technicals.  I'll be trying to get some calls on any weakness in the gold shares next week.  I could be wrong and have been often when it comes to the precious metals.  However the bearishness for gold is so rampant right now that I am inclined to take the other side.  My first half of the year trading has been dismal, with more losers than winners.  I'll be trying to turn that around in the second half of the year.  My guess is that the summer will have its share of the doldrums before volatility picks up in the autumn.  That would give the stock indices some time to perhaps build even a larger top before dropping once again.  But I'll try and listen to what the market says and take my cues from there.  For now it's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break. 

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