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Monday, July 01, 2013

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We begin the holiday week to the upside as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We were up at least twice as much as the close. However the light volume rise is what is preferred for now as we look for a point to purchase the July OEX puts. Ideally I'd like to see the OEX get up to the 740 level. The summation index continues higher so the threat of collapse through the zero line here is gone for the time being. However the OEX was turned away at the 50 day moving average for the second time. Ditto for the S&P 500. GE was up 1/8 after being higher during the session. I'd still like to try the July calls here before the earnings report but the preferred trade is the OEX. Gold continued its rebound from the $1200 or so level. The precious metal futures soared $32. The US dollar was a bit weaker. The gold shares did not follow as the XAU only showed a gain of 1 1/3. ABX fell 1/2, GG gained 3/4 and NEM was up 1/4. Volume remained heavy for the gold shares. I'm still leaving in my open order for the ABX October calls. Although there is a distinct possibilty that the summer could be a dead zone for gold. I'm still pondering the merits of this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A nice rise to start the day in the stock indices but then the rally lost all of its steam. That isn't bullish. Perhaps the remaining couple of sessions before the holiday will be a wait and see type of affair. The employment report on Friday looms. Not to mention a lot of players won't even be around that day. It probably isn't a wise time to make any major trades. The small stocks are acting pretty good here so maybe my idea of shorting any rally isn't correct. Time will tell on that. Gold has had a couple of up days but that doesn't mean a rally is starting. Regardless, I'm calling for the bottom to be here at around $1200 and I'm sticking to it. We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and go from there.


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