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Thursday, July 18, 2013

More new highs as the Dow closed higher by 78 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The beat goes on and on.  Summation index continues to the upside.  Bernanke finishes his speeches and says all the right things.  No overhead resistance and the small stocks continue higher as well.  Maybe I'm just all wrong trying to look for a short entry here.  However on the S&P 500 daily chart this looks like the 5th and final wave up from the lows of June.  My guess is that getting some August puts if and when we get over the 1700 level will be just fine.  We'll see.  GE was up just a touch after being higher earlier in the session.  Volume was average.  The daily candlestick for today looks ominous but that could all change with the earnings for tomorrow.  Or not.  Perhaps the overall market will follow the lead of GE on Friday.  I did not try any trades here.  Gold was up $6 on the futures and the US dollar saw a little bit of strength today.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on lighter volume.  Hopefully we are just working off some of the short term overbought conditions here before heading higher once again.  That's the hope at least.  The markets always go where they want.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We're still overbought both short and medium term for the stock indexes.  Of course I've been saying that a lot this year.  We really haven't had a decent downside move in quite a while.  The May to June swoon does count for something but it wasn't much in percentage terms.  My guess is that we will get something trade worthy in the next couple of option cycles.  Gold is now moving sideways before the next directional take off.  Which way is the question.  Short term overbought here on some of the technicals and that could be enough to send it lower near term.  I'm going to have to seriously consider getting rid of the October ABX calls before they turn into losers again.  We'll get through expiration Friday tomorrow and call it a week.

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