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Friday, July 12, 2013

The blog site here continues to malfunction.  I may have to move it and I will let you know here if I do.  Hopefully it will return to normal soon.  The Dow was negative for most of the session and then popped up in the final half hour.  It finished the day with a slight gain of 3 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It felt like a summer Friday as it should.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow once again, implying higher prices.  I canceled my July OEX put order but may try it again early next week.  However I could also make a case for just sitting out next week and waiting until the August option cycle.  Overbought, staying there and there is no overhead resistance for most of the stock indices at this point in time.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are leading the way and that is bullish.  GE was lower by 18 cents today.  Volume was average for summer.  We're below $24 and the resistance comes in at $24.25.  You could make a case to go either way here before the earnings in a week.  I will probably sit this one out.  Gold was off a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU dropped 2 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses and the volume was lighter than it has been.  My ABX calls are still slightly in the black.  Gold and the XAU finally had a positive week but you can't make much more of it than that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Higher we go with a summer rally and there doesn't seem to be anything in the way to stop it.  Plus the positive expiration week bias will be upon us.  I've been looking to buy index puts and we have done nothing but rally so I've been wrong again here as well.  At least it hasn't cost me any money just yet.  Plenty of economic data out next week so perhaps we'll see some volatility.  The markets won't go straight up forever.  Gold found a bid this week and I still think the lows are in at the $1200 level.  I could be wrong and often am.  The gold shares haven't taken the lead here so perhaps this week was just a dead cat bounce.  That's a guess as usual.  Once the gold shares start to out perform gold itself, we should see a sustained rally.  My apologies for the sloppiness of the blog this week but I cannot control the functioning of this site itself.  Spellcheck isn't working properly along with the posting page.  As I said before hopefully things will return to normal next week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to decide whether trying the OEX puts in the next 5 days is viable.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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