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Friday, July 05, 2013

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A continuing light volume levitation as the Dow gained 147 points on lackluster activity.  The advance/declines were positive.  Not all the players are here due to the long holiday weekend.  We are almost to the declining tops lines for the major stock indices.  The scenario is playing out almost ideally for the OEX puts at some point next week.  The trouble is that the small stocks are acting much better here and that they usually lead the way.  The RUT closed at a new high for the year and that is worrisome for the short side.  Perhaps we are going to retest the old yearly highs in the major averages as well.  Getting short term overbought on the technicals for the stock indices but not all the way there yet.  The jobs number was better than expected and the news out of Europe was for continued low interest rates.  The summation index continues to the upside.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  I still haven't made up my mind on exactly what to do here.  Perhaps I'll simply pass on this trade.  Gold got clobbered again as the US dollar was higher.  The precious metal futures fell about $30.  We did finish off of the lows and the $1200 level is still holding for now.  The XAU finished off its lows as well, down 2 7/8 on the day.  ABX lost 7/8, GG down 3/4 and NEM shed 1 1/4.  Volume was good here though despite the holiday atmosphere.  My October ABX call trade was filled today and the calls are right where I bought them.  I've attempted this trade numerous times with nothing but disastrous results.  We'll see what happens this time.  Nobody wants the gold shares or gold here.  Oversold and staying there for weeks on end.  That condition won't last forever.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Stocks continue to rise and we are approaching the second line of resistance for the major stock indexes.  The 50 day moving average was penetrated to the upside today.  Next up is the declining tops line.  After that will come the old highs if we get that far.  I'll have plenty to ponder over the rest of the weekend.  I'd still like to give the OEX puts for July a chance.  We'll see.  I would feel a lot better about the put trade if the small stocks were not so strong here.  Gold remains unloved and the gold shares remain strong under performers.  I'm in the ABX call trade now though.  Earnings due on August 1st.  The fundamentals for gold look horrible here as well with a stronger US dollar.  Not to mention civil unrest around the world and gold can't even catch any kind of rally.  As I said before getting long gold here is the ultimate contrarion play.  We'll see if it works.  I'll be checking the charts for the rest of the weekend.  Time to take a break on a Friday afternoon in the summer.      

2 comments:

Unknown said...

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Unknown said...

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