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Monday, July 22, 2013

A typical summer Monday session as the Dow finished little changed on the day.  The most watched index rose a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow implying higher prices to come.  I still like the idea of some OEX puts at some point when we get over 1700 on the S&P 500.  But perhaps the market won't wait for me.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  It might be a good time to watch and wait.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No overhead resistance here but there is a possible negative RSI divergence on the weekly chart.  No trades here for now.  Gold was the story of the day as it broke through the $1300 level convincingly.  The precious metal futures gained over $40 on the session.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU rallied 5 1/2 and broke through the first down trend line on the daily charts, as did some of the individual gold shares.  ABX rose a buck, GG and NEM each added over 1 1/2.  Volume was strong to the upside which confirmed the breaking of the down trend lines for the gold issues.  My October ABX calls are solidly in the black.  The question now is when to sell them.  Overbought on the short term for both gold and the gold shares now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  At this point you can't help but wonder how much longer this rally has to go.  I am still going to try and be patient to wait for some negative divergences before I buy some index puts.  Easier said than done sometimes.  I'm still guessing that this is the 5th wave up of a 5 wave move.  I could be wrong.  Gold had a very strong session and that bodes well going forward.  The gold shares were leading the way before today and that is positive moving forward as well.  I am going to have to consider taking the profit on the October ABX call trade and perhaps buying them back cheaper later.  However the last time a gold share call trade worked for me, I sold the options way too early.  Plenty to ponder as usual and the trading is never easy no matter which way it goes.  We'll follow what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.       

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