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Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Finally a bit of downside as the Dow fell 32 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  I did not attempt any OEX put trade today and I'll be waiting for the August option cycle to maybe try out that idea again.  The market should move off of whatever Bernanke has to say tomorrow.  We're still overbought for the stock indices.  This could be the end of the rally but that remains to be seen.  It is a possibility though.  GE was off almost 1/4 today and the volume picked up a little.  Things still could go either way here on the earnings report due Friday.  Gold was up $6 on the futures today as the US dollar took another steep drop.  The gold shares out performed for a change as the XAU rose 4 1/2.  ABX up a buck, GG gained 1 3/8 and NEM added 7/8.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are in the black.  GG is clearly leading the way here though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll see where we go from here but I think it is no secret that any upside would be limited from here for the stock indexes.  We are in the seasonally unfavorable period for the stock market.  When this summer rally ends there will be opportunity in buying puts on the indices.  The ideal scenario would be with a declining summation index.  I believe that at some point in the next couple of months that will happen.  So will will wait and see.  Patience is required for now but when the time comes you'll have to be ready to strike.  Gold is showing a little life here but we don't know if it is for real or simply a dead cat bounce.  I am sticking with my guess that the lows are in for gold at around the $1200 level.  The gold shares are acting better but that could change at any time as we all know.  I'm going to have to consider selling my October ABX calls at a profit for once.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight as we wait for Bernanke tomorrow.   

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