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Tuesday, July 02, 2013

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A one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and close lower.  The Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  Once again the 50 day moving average has turned back prices.  The summation index continues higher though.  Plus the RUT average of small stocks is closer to breaking out to new highs for the year than the other major indices.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of that.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a pre-holiday slow and light volume session.  Then we get the employment report on Friday.  It doesn't look like I'll be getting the July OEX puts before then.  Perhaps we won't make it back to the declining tops lines for the major indices.  I'm on the side of caution for now.  GE fell 3/8 and the volume was good.  Perhaps GE is a precursor for the overall market here.  Trying to hold the 50 day moving average support.  The July GE calls are certainly cheaper now but I'm not biting.  Gold fell back today as the US dollar was stronger.  The gold futures were off $12.  The XAU dropped as well, losing 3 3/4.  ABX off 3/4, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM slid a buck.  Volume remains pretty good here.  Nothing but bad news for the miners and the fundamentals at the moment are working against them.  Technically still oversold and blown out but we still do not see any signs of a sustained rally.  I adjusted down the strike price for my open order on the October ABX calls as we hit another new low there today.  I'll still give this trade a shot despite the negative outlook and environment.  It is the ultimate contrary play at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks are a bit short term overbought here and I doubt we will see a lot of buyers ahead of the employment report.  The market reaction to that number will bear watching.  It should be a thinly traded affair though with the holiday on Thursday contributing to a longer than normal weekend.  I'm being cautious here for now and I'm still favoring puts over calls for the stock indexes.  Gold had a bounce and it stalled today despite civil unrest in Egypt.  Nobody wants the precious metal but I'm still saying the bottom is in at around $1200.  The gold shares continue to be unloved.  The Shanghai market continues to bounce back from its collapse and that is a positive overall for the stock indices for now.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.  

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