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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Another mixed session for the stock markets as the Dow fell 25 points on almost average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Perhaps this is the beginning of the anticipated downside.  But I'm hoping for one last run above 1700 on the S&P 500 to get short.  It may or may not happen.  The small stocks held up better today but AAPL had a lot to do with that.  Still overbought on the stock indices.  I'm going to try and be patient here to buy the OEX puts.  The game is never easy.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  No real follow through so far to the good day on Friday.  Gold got slammed today as the futures were off by $15 after being higher earlier in the session.  The XAU was even weaker, losing 4 5/8.  ABX lost 7/8, GG and NEM fell 1 1/2.  Volume was good.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  Hopefully it was simply profit taking for gold today but it is still overbought here.  My October ABX calls remain in the black but lost value today.  GG and NEM are out with earnings tomorrow.  GG before the bell and NEM after the close.  This news should set the tone for the gold shares tomorrow and Friday.  I really can't see any good news coming out of theses reports with the drop in the price of gold over the recent quarter.  So we'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was the first real downside day since the end of June.  Seasonality says that we won't be going much higher from here.  It will be interesting to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  I would advise anybody who is looking to trade the stock indexes to be sure and keep a close eye on things here.  We could be simply heading into a period of the doldrums for a couple of weeks.  But if we are not, things could get interesting very quickly.  I would like to say I have conviction one way or the other but there are no divergences yet in my opinion.  I'm still looking to trade the downside though.  Gold did not have a good day but the near term up trend line is still intact.  However if the stock market rolls over here soon as I expect, it will probably take the gold shares with it.  We also had a nice gap to the upside on the weekly gold share charts to start things off this week.  If we fall back the next couple of days as well, the weekly charts won't look so bullish.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.

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